First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. Recall that 60% of the experts as local bottom called zone 1.1100-1.1185. As for the remaining 40%, then, in their opinion, support 1.1185 was to be an insurmountable obstacle, after which analysts had expected to return the pair to train 1.1275-1.1320. That's how it happened: the bottom has been fixed at the level of 1.1190, the pair turned and went up, reaching to a height of 1.1285 high. This was followed by a retreat, and the pair completed a five-day week at Pivot Point the first half of the summer - 1.1270;
- GBP / USD. Line Chart pair on the D1 resembles a parabola that, in general, reflects the two key experts forecast. 40% of them expect decrease in pair to lows in December 2018 -. 2019g.g January, and she sank to the level of 1.2438. And then, as implied other part analysts couple went north, where it was stopped resistance 1.2575;
- USD / JPY. 40% Analysts calculated that the pair will be able to overcome resistance and rise to 108.80 109.00-109.60 tier. It seems that this prediction is about to come true. However, the pair has been unable to touch the horizon 109.00: it reached only a couple of points, she fell down and went back to strong support in June-July 2019. in zone 107.85;
- cryptocurrency. Ultra-high volatility of Bitcoin continues to keep investors and traders in constant tension, as fluctuations in the 10-15-20% are able in a short time not only enrich but also ruin any. The reason, in the first place, lies in a thin market. So thin that any profit-largest player, any little bit loud news cause serious course racing.
For example, the statement of the Fed Jerome Powell that the Facebook network can not allow the launch of its cryptocurrency the Libra, while the company does not settle all issues with regulators on Wednesday overturned BTC quotes / USD down by 15%. Although it would seem, bitcoin should be only better in the absence of such a powerful competitor like Libra. As a result, the upward trend was interrupted by the beginning of the week and the couple returned to the values of July 7 in the area of $ 11,000-11,850.
Altkoynov stress resistance was significantly lower than that of the main cryptocurrency. So, seven days Ethereum (ETH / USD) has lost 7%, Ripple (XRP / USD) - 11%, and laytkoyn (LTC / USD) - 13%.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. Markets continue to rule the imminent expectation of lower interest rates the US Fed and ECB monetary policy easing. In which side, the euro or the dollar, will swing the balance?
In the last minutes of the European regulator there is a high risk of an economic slowdown. And if the situation does not improve in the near future (and why should it be improved?), The ECB is ready to cut interest rates and increase bond purchases under the QE program. It is not necessary that this will be announced as early as July 25, but some clarity the ECB meeting scheduled for that day must still be made.
It is possible that the topic of monetary policy easing, but in the US, will affect Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking on Tuesday July 16 at a conference in Paris. There he read a report on monetary policy especially in the post-crisis era, and the tone of the report could have a strong impact on the dollar.
Another important event that could affect the dollar pair will be the publication of data on the growth rate of China's GDP for the 2nd quarter 2019. This will take place on Monday, July 15, and many experts expect a fairly strong slowdown in economic growth in China that can provide strong support for the US currency.
As for the trend indicators and oscillators is on H4 and D1 they are in opposition, - H4 if most of them are painted in green color, on a daily time frame the picture opposite.
Painted in red and forecasts of the majority (65%) of experts who expect further strengthening of the dollar and the decline of the pair to 1.1150-1.1200 area. The next goal of bears - the zone 1.1100-1.1115. As for the bulls, they see their goal in raising the couple levels up 1.1350-1.1410;
- GBP / USD. Tuesday, July 16 will be published statistics on the labor market, the growth rate of wages and unemployment in the UK. And on Wednesday, July 17, we learn of the inflation data. But neither there nor there, experts do not expect any surprises.
At the moment, 60% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis and a majority on the D1 indicator, expect the pound again test the 1.2440 support and, if successful, will fall to a minimum 3 January 2019. at the level of 1.2405.
The remaining 40% of the experts advise to open positions on the buy. Two main arguments: the growth of the yield spread of government bonds the UK and the USA, and the rising cost of oil. Both of these factors have to push up pound. 1.2755 nearest resistance, the following - 1.2825;
- USD / JPY. It is known that this pair has a strong correlation with the US stock market, the index Dow Jones Industrial Average on the eve - the first time in history! - crossed the mark of 27,000 and reached 27,330 mark on Friday. Against this background, the couple can show growth up to 108.50-109.00 zone. Next target 109.65. However, for such a scenario it is voted only 30% of analysts. The majority of experts (70%), with the support of 90% of trend indicators on the D1, the pair are expected to reduce by June lows near 106.75-107.00.
As for the graphical analysis, then D1 he draws the lateral movement of the pair in the channel with a predominance 107.70-109.00 bullish;
- cryptocurrency. If time frames H4 and D1 the third week we see a pair of lateral movement of the BTC / USD with the gradual consolidation around $ 11,500-12,000, then W1 and MN, the picture looks much more optimistic - uptrend is in full swing.
Positive forecasts do many experts. For example, the US rating agency, Weiss Ratings has assigned a Bitcoin Us A- assessment, stressing that at the moment the potential benefits of investing in the first cryptocurrency outweigh the risks. A CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management Iusco Mark (Mark Yusko) expressed the opinion that the current market cycle may raise the price of Bitcoins to a new historical maximum of $ 30,000. It is growing and mining bitcoin. Research scientists at Cambridge University have shown that today, this process consumes more energy than countries such as Switzerland or Kuwait. However, at what point will the new upswing, yet predict no one can, and predictions of experts for the upcoming week does not go beyond the $ 9,725-13,765 range.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.