First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. Many traders complain of low volatility in the market. But, despite the pessimism Mario Draghi that he demonstrated after the ECB meeting on Wednesday, April 10, for the past week the euro was able to play the dollar around 100 points and go to the zone of very strong support / resistance level 1.1300, around which the pair started to move back in January 2015. The reason for this is likely a delay in Brexit.
As a result, the forecast proved correct, given that 40% of analysts, supported by 20% of the oscillators, signal an oversold. In their view, rebounding from support in the area of 1.1200, the pair had to go up to resistance 1.1255 and in case of a breakthrough, reach a height of 1.1300. What happened in reality;
- GBP / USD. The vast majority of analysts (65%) of the expected strengthening of the British currency. Their forecast was based on the fact that an extraordinary meeting of the European Council will support the extension Brexit procedures for the long term, and that the output of the UK from the EU without a deal does not take place on April 12th. That's exactly what happened. The British Parliament passed a law prohibiting the output without the transaction, and the European Council pushed Brexit for up to six months. Would give a delay and more, if not for the president of France Macron, who can not wait to take second in the EU, after Germany, the place after the departure of the islanders.
As the main resistance zone at D1 graphical analysis indicates the level of 1.3120, where the pair reached on Tuesday April 09, but overcome, after 3 attempts, and could not. And finally completed the week at 1.3070;
- USD / JPY. 85% of the experts were convinced that the couple required to test the upper limit of the medium-term channel 109.70-112.15. And on Friday, April 12, it has almost reached the target, rising to a height of 112.09. However, before this the pair fell to the center line of the channel, and only pushed away, showed an impressive rise to 115 points. Such a rise in the pair and the strengthening of the dollar against the yen were due, according to analysts, in the first instance, the yield rising US long-term bonds in the last two working days of the week;
- cryptocurrency. Prediction relatively bitcoin justified by almost 100%. According to 70% of the analysts, the major fluctuations in pairs of BTC / USD had to be in the range of $ 5,000-5,500, where it was moving most of the time. Experts also expect the bears trying to drop a couple of below $ 4,800, however, they were unsuccessful, and the local bottom was fixed at $ 4,930. As a result, the reference cryptocurrency completed a week-long series of almost the same place where it started - in the area of $ 5,100.
It should be noted that $ 5,100 - this is the height to which bitcoin suddenly took off on Tuesday, April 2. In the basic version, the jump in prices was caused by only one investor, requesting BTC purchase $ 100 million in the three major markets - Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp. And the fact that the bullish trend has not found its development, evidence in favor of this version as a one-time purchase, even at $ 100 million, can not be a sufficient reason to initiate sustainable market growth.
And if bitcoin, and with it Ethereum (ETH / USD), remained in the sideways, then quotes Ripple (XRP / USD), laytkoyna (LTC / USD), EOS and a number of other top altkoynov went negative. Only one Thursday, April 11, they sank by an average of 10%.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. If 60% of trend indicators on the D1 is still painted in green, then the picture is quite different oscillators - a third of them acquired a neutral gray color, and another third have already indicates overbought. 65% of the experts also expect that if not immediately, then be sure to leave the end of the month the pair down, trying to once again test the first minimum 02 April - 1.1183, and then the low of March 07 - 1.1175. The nearest support - 1.1250.
At the same graphical analysis H4 suggests that before going to the south, the couple for some time, can rise above the level of 1.1300, after reaching 1.1350. The next target bulls - 1.1420;
- GBP / USD. Experts believe that the euphoria caused by the postponement Brexit, come quickly to naught, and the couple some time stay in sideways, moving within 1.2985-1.3150. The nearest support - 1.3050, resistance - 1.3120. However, at the transition to the medium projected for 60% of analysts side with bulls waiting strengthening pound and a pair of transition zone 1.3200-1.3350. But the accuracy of the forecast again depends on what happens around Brexit. There is a risk of a second referendum that could result in a waiver of Brexit in general, and, conversely, the UK out of the EU without agreement. Any news and rumors on this subject are able to quickly reverse the trend in one direction or another, as long as the demand for the British currency remains very weak;
- USD / JPY. The bullish scenario remains a priority for 70% of experts, supported by 100% of trend indicators, looking north. In their view, if the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds continue to grow, the couple, with the support in the area of 112.00, can rise to the 113.00-114.20 zone.
However, since the pair is active in the turning area is near the upper boundary of the channel medium 109.70-112.15 not excluded rebound pair downward, as indicated by the signals of the oscillators 25%, indicating its perekuplennost. Support levels - 110.85, 110.35 and the lower boundary of the channel 109.70. Affect the quotation of USD / JPY may trade negotiations, the US and Japan at the beginning of the coming week;
- Among other events, which you should pay attention to the publication: Labor market data and UK index of business sentiment ZEW (Germany) on Tuesday, April 16; China's GDP, the UK index of consumer prices and Eurozone inflation report on Wednesday, April 17; Data for the UK and US retail sales on Thursday, April 18, and finally, the index of consumer prices in Japan Friday, April 19;
- cryptocurrency. In general, the news background around the main cryptocurrency quite positive. Bitcoin network overcame another milestone. In the entire history of its first cryptocurrency blokcheyn processed over 400 million transactions. At the moment, the network handles about 350,000 transfers per day, or 14,900 per hour. Every 60 minutes moves approximately 81.5 thousand BTC, and the average size of the transaction is 5,44 BTC.
Financial analyst and co-founder Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee (Tom Lee) optimistically declared that bitcoin is back in bullish trend and a fair price for it today - $ 14 thousand. However, not everyone shares his attitude. For example, the head of the stock exchange Coinbase Brian Armstrong, believes that the massive arrival of investors in kriptosferu begin only after the decision of the three major problems associated with digital assets. This scalability, ease of use and the volatility of Bitcoin.
If we talk about the medium-term outlook, most analysts (70%) believes that the BTC / USD pair is required to reach the level of $ 6,000. However, in the coming days it will likely move in the range of $ 4,935-5,335, making attempts to break through the border in either direction. So, taking into account the emissions oscillation range can be expanded to $ 4,600-5,500.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.