First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. Last week was marked by two events. The first - the progress on the next stage of trade negotiations between the US and China, the beginning of which Trump calls "a very, very good." The second - a breakthrough in negotiations on Brexit. Increased hopes for a regulated output UK pound pushed up, and after it reached the north and the European currency. Helped her and published on Thursday, October 10 meeting of the ECB report, which confirmed that the bank is coming to curtail easing (QE). As a result, the pair managed to rise to the level of 1.1062
- GBP / USD. We believed in the new prime minister, Boris Johnson and hoped for a miracle only 35% of the experts. And then a miracle happened, and even exceeded all expectations. Analysts waited lifting height of the pair to 1.2525, in reality, the pound soared by more than 500 points, reaching a height of 1.2708. The cause was a breakthrough in negotiations on the Irish border, which resulted in the prime of Ireland Leo Varadkar said that they have been "very positive and promising." It is possible that Johnson is ready to introduce to Northern Ireland special conditions and allow it a period of four years after Brexit remain in the European customs union.
According to experts, the GBP / USD pair has been so oversold that any positive news was able to induce growth of the pound. And in this case, a positive load in the negotiations, as a trigger, allowing the British currency in just a couple of days potyazhelet 4%;
- USD / JPY. But for the yen, in contrast to the pound seems to have fallen on hard days - thanks to the growth of risk sentiment, the Japanese currency has undergone massive sales, bringing its quotations fell nearly 200 points, to the level of 108.62 yen per dollar. Among the reasons cited several. It hopes for a favorable outcome of the US-China trade war, progress in the negotiations on Brexit, the last minutes of the meeting of the ECB and the sharp rise in US bond yields;
- cryptocurrency. Volume capitalization kriptorynka ($ 234 billion) is still small compared with the traditional markets (gold market is estimated at $ 9 trillion, the stock market - to $ 66 trillion, the bond market - to $ 86 trillion), and less than two tenths of one percent of their total assets. But, despite this, the theme of digital currency was constantly on the crest of the world politics.
Thus, the famous American billionaire Daniel Steven Pena (Daniel Steven Peña) said that cryptocurrency may be the result of Russian conspiracy against the United States, and the creation of Bitcoin is worth the president Vladimir Putin. Echoed this statement echoed an appeal of members of the House of Representatives of the US Congress to head the Fed with a proposal on the issue of crypto-dollar. This step treatment the authors want to protect American finance from the influence of a foreign hostile cryptocurrency.
With a similar initiative was made, and the Vice-Chancellor and Minister of Finance of Germany Olaf Scholz, has called to release a digital euro. "We should not leave this space to China, Russia, the United States or to any of the private providers", - he said.
Crypto-dollar and euro-crypto - a long way off, but now the government and central banks begin to actively fight against potential independent competitors. Under strong pressure appeared release Zuckerberg (Facebook) Libra own coins. Next in the queue TON - coin, to which the launch is fast approaching Telegram.
In the meantime, the main cryptocurrency, which keeps the entire market, of course, remains bitcoin. Forecast for the past week, which is supported by the majority of experts (75%), assumed lateral movement BTC / USD pair with a certain predominance of bears that can drop a couple of marks to $ 7,500-7,700. However, on Monday bitcoin found the local bottom at $ 7.795 and then turned and went up. Changing the trend it may have been associated with the launch of p2p platform from Binance, where bitcoin and Ethereum will be traded for Chinese yuan.
On Wednesday, October 9 pair managed to overcome a two-week resistance in the area of $ 8,350 on Friday and peaked at $ 8.815. After that it is back to the horizon $ 8,350, which may now become a new area of strong support for it.
Altkoyny all week obediently repeated movement reference cryptocurrency. However, if the oscillation magnitude Ethereum (ETH / USD) and Ripple (XRP / USD) was about 17%, then laytkoyn (LTC / USD) behaved somewhat calmer, demonstrating the volatility of 13%.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. On the final outcome of the US-China trade talks markets show reasonable restraint, waiting for the continuation of endless debate, and maybe even their total collapse, and the introduction of new duties. We have this week also expect some important news that can have a strong influence on the course of currencies considered. Among these statistics from China on Monday, October 14 and Friday October 18, as well as inflation reports the UK and the euro zone on Tuesday 15 October and Wednesday 17 October. On Thursday, the high volatility can cause a report on industrial production in the US. It predicted a significant reduction in this parameter - from 0.6% to 0.1%. And if the actual value coincides with the forecast, we can expect the dollar's decline.
The fall of the dollar and the rise of the pair are expected, and 70% of experts, whose testimony forecast reinforce 75% of the oscillators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1. Support Zone in the case of growth of pair - 1.1000. Goals - 1.1075, 1.1100 and 1.1160.
Opposite view is held 30% and 20% analysts oscillators feed signals overbought. Goals - 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0925 and 1.0880 at least 1 October;
- GBP / USD. In fact, rejoice over Brexit successful completion early. Johnson still have to deal with the conditions of the EU approved by Parliament. And this, let us recall, four failed to make the UK the previous prime minister - Theresa May. Negotiations with Ireland is also still pending. In addition, in the coming Thursday and Friday will take place at the European Council summit Brexit. Each of these steps can slow down the process of the transaction or even become an insurmountable obstacle in its path. In the latter case in the European Union are ready to provide new delay until the summer of 2020, to still ensure a smooth exit of Great Britain from the EU.
These difficulties, as well as the too rapid growth of the pound in the past week, have led to what is now 75% of the experts expect the trend reversal and fall of the British pound to 1.2200 zone. Support such a scenario graphical analysis on D1 and 15% of the oscillators at the H4 and D1, signaling an overbought pounds.
Still believe in good luck, Boris Johnson, the vast majority of oscillators and trend indicators, as well as 25% of experts waiting to strengthen the pound and the rise of the pair to a height of 1.2800. Naturally, the appearance of significant positive news regarding Brexit, not to mention the signing of the Agreement, may lead to yet another breakthrough pounds to cosmic heights;
- USD / JPY. On the top face H4 100% trend indicators, such D1 to slightly less than - 90%. The green and H4, and D1 painted oscillators 75%, the remaining 15% fed signals overbought. Graphical analysis D1 indicates decreased to the horizon 106.65 pair, and then back to a height of 108.40.
As for the experts, their opinions were divided equally: one-third for the pair, one third - for the fall and a third - for a sideways trend. Support zone - 107.00, 106.65 and 105.70, resistance - 109.00 and 109.85;
- cryptocurrency. As already mentioned above, breaking a two-week resistance at $ 8,350, bitcoin might turn this area is now in a strong enough support. Especially because kriptovalyutny "index of fear and greed» (Fear & Greed Index), rising from the red zone "extreme fear", passed almost orange zone "fear ordinary" and is close to its neutral position. If this happens, the next target for the BTC / USD pair will be consolidated in the neighborhood of $ 9,000. However, this prediction is maintained only 35% of analysts. The greater part of them (65%) sided bears waiting reducing pairs to the horizon first $ 8,000, and then to below $ 400.
Another "space" outlook, which we regularly tell, was the statement by the creator of the well-known antivirus John McAfee that in 2020 the price of Bitcoin will reach $ 1 million. The impetus for entering the bullish trend, in his opinion, will be a limited number of BTC coins, and a sharp reduction in the number altkoynov that will make a major coin only reliable and stable kriptoaktivom.
Gloomy future for altkoynov tipped and analysts The TIE. According to their observations, the interest in altkoinam falling rapidly, approaching in some cases to zero. So it is possible that thousands of coins in a matter of months to stay afloat are just a few of the largest, such as Ethereum or Libra.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.