First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. On Wednesday, January 9, after repeated attempts, the pair managed to break through the upper limit of the same medium-side channel, in which she had been since November 2018. Overcoming the resistance in the zone of 1.1500, it reached a height of 1.1570, followed by a reversal of the trend, and the pair is once again within the said channel, ending the week at 1.1470.
On the weakening of the dollar has affected a number of factors - and unplanned "vacation" of the US Government, and very accurate, "pigeon" speech of the Fed Jerome Powell at the meeting of the Economic Club in Washington, DC, where he was five times uttered the word "patience". But the main factor, according to many experts, become actively promote the RMB to the alleged signing of a trade agreement with the United States;
- GBP / USD. Recall that on the side of the bulls last week has risen only 15% of analysts. But they, and they were right. Unclear prospects for the dollar outweighed anxiety associated with Brexit. Supported the pound and the positive GDP data in the UK, published on Friday, January 11th. As a result, the pair rose almost 150 points, reaching a height of 1.2865, followed by a slight rebound, and quotes decreased to 1.2840 zone;
- USD / JPY. After the "Christmas storm" caused by a lack of liquidity, the Japanese currency shows complete peace of mind, moving in a narrow side corridor within 107.75-109.10. The end of the week the pair met in the same place where it began, - near Pivot Point 108.50. The reason is the emerging balance between the attractiveness of the yen as a safe-haven currency and increased interest in other currencies, which can bring major benefits in the case between the US and China to conclude a bargain;
- cryptocurrency. Our review is fundamentally different from the others in that it is not the opinion of one particular analyst. In his analysis, we aim to collect as much as possible the views of various experts to getting rid of the harmful "noise", to identify the underlying trend, which determines the movement of pairs in one direction or another. However, it can be very difficult, as, for example, is now against cryptocurrency.
Some of the experts believe that the main drop in the crypto-pairs at the end of last week, the positive correction that began in mid-December 2018., And a return to the negative dynamics of the market. And someone on the contrary - postprazdnichnym syndrome, after which quotes again rushed up.
Whatever it was, but kriptorynka capitalization fell from $ 138 billion the 6th January to $ 123 billion on Friday, January 11, losing nearly 11%. Fall and quotes basic cryptocurrency - Bitcoin, laytkoyna, Ethereum, Ripple and many others. So, BTC / USD pair is trading near a three-week low of $ 3,700 area.
The reasons fall called and that investors hoping for a festive gap, now disillusioned, close their positions, and the fact that the exchange Gate.io was stolen about 40,000 Ethereum coins. Could add negative news and the refusal of the Japanese FSA regulator to launch ETF based cryptocurrency. In general, the reasons are many, but the fact remains - all major altkoiny moved into the red zone, and traded down from 5% to as, for example, the ETH, 23%.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. As is known, the European currency has a strong correlation with the oil and metals. And in the commodity market, we are seeing a positive trend, especially in regard to energy. OPEC's intention to completely remove excess oil from the market should lead to further growth of quotations, which plays into the hand of the euro. Pause is taken with respect to the Fed raising interest rates for the US dollar is a concern of investors.
As a result, at this moment, 65% of analysts supported oscillators 90% and 70% on the trend indicators D1, voted for lifting of the pair above 1.1500 zone and its growth up to a height of 1.1550 first and then to the level of 1.1625.
Those same experts that continue to remain loyal to the American currency, it is believed that when he returned in the medium channel 1.1300-1.1500, it does not break out of it for a long time. And because the couple is waiting for its first decline in the center line of 1.1400, and then to 100 points lower;
- GBP / USD. It is clear that the vast majority of indicators at this point is colored in green. However, already at 10% oscillators perekuplennosti D1 signal of this pair. The possibility of it falling to the horizon 1.2600 points and graphical analysis on the daily time frame. As for the experts, there is no clear advantage neither the bulls nor the bears. For the pair gave their votes 55% of them, for her fall - 45%.
On Tuesday, January 15 to be voted UK Parliament on Brexit. It is likely that the proposed prime minister Theresa May version of the agreement with the EU will be rejected, and we are waiting for another postponement. In this case, it becomes increasingly clear that the divorce with the European Union on the hard scenario not included in the plans of the government, which has a positive effect on the British currency quotes. It provides additional support to the pound rise in oil prices.
Pending the outcome of the vote, to make any predictions meaningless. You can only specify the key levels: support - 1.2780, 1.2720, 1.2660 and 1.2600, resistance - 1.2925 and 1.3050;
- USD / JPY. Indicators and graphical analysis D1 to predict the strengthening of the Japanese currency, to agree than 65% of the experts, the pair is expected to decline to 107.50-107.80 zone, and then even lower - to support 106.70.
On the other hand, thanks to low interest rates in Japan, the pair sufficiently strongly correlated with the global stock indices. And the upward trend in the market suggests a possible growth of the pair to levels of 109.10 and 109.45, and in case of breakdown of the latter, in its transition zone 110.25-110.80;
- cryptocurrency. Despite the fall in the capitalization of the crypto-market, the average daily number of transactions with Bitcoin approached over the last week to 280,000, which is comparable with the peaks of 2018. Therefore, to predict the end of the reference cryptocurrency, and the whole market, hardly worth it. But the likelihood of a breakthrough a couple of BTC / USD support $ 3,700, and its return to the lows of mid-December in the area of $ 3,250 remains high. This scenario is supported by 45% of the experts.
Most analysts believe that the pair will hold next week in a three-week "speculative" $ 3.685-4.385 area. However, a rise to around $ 5,000, they speak with great caution and only in the longer term.
Slightly better expectations about the Ethereum. Experts expect that after hardforka called Constantinople pair of ETH / USD will go up.
Roman Butko, NordFX