Free no deposit Bonus Forex
Sunday, 18.08.2019, 20:09
Welcome Guest | RSS
 
Main RegistrationLogin
Site menu
Login form
Earn 3-10% per
FreshForex bonus
Cripto Invest
Statistics

Total online: 1
Guests: 1
Users: 0
...
Main » 2019 » August » 12 » Forex forecast and forecast cryptocurrency on 12 - 16 August 2019.
09:16
Forex forecast and forecast cryptocurrency on 12 - 16 August 2019.

article33830.jpg

First, a few words about the events of the past week:

 

- USD / EUR. The pair is consolidating in a zone of strong support / resistance level near 1.1200. Generally, 1.1150-1.1215 zone is sufficient for the pair of sign, as it can be called the main Pivot Point 2015-2016g.g. And now, three years later, the couple was again in this range, which may indicate some confusion market.

Uncertainty enough.

 

nord_crypto trade cryptocurrency

 

 

Firstly, it is the beginning of another round of US-China trade war. Type c 1 September a 10 percent duty on the next group of Chinese goods, the US President did not stop there, called China a "currency manipulator", and is now planning to postpone the issuance of licenses to trade in US companies with Huawei.


In addition to the external war, Trump has to maintain both an internal war - with its own Fed. In his twitter on Thursday August 8, he wrote: "Our company - the best in the world, no one can catch up with them, but unfortunately, this is not true of our Federal Reserve. They make mistakes at every step ... ". It is about stimulating the American economy, which is one step from the recession, what Trump blames the strong dollar. "High interest rates the Fed - he writes - in comparison with other countries to support the dollar at a high level, resulting in our wonderful producers [...] is becoming harder to compete."

So, the market is waiting for US leadership steps aimed at the prevention of industrial decline. But these same steps and waiting for the ECB, so as to undermine the economic wars and political instability within the EU, the euro area economy is also not in the best condition, while the yield on German bonds reached record lows. However, lowering the interest rate for the euro - it's a double edged sword. Stimulating industrial growth, such a move would create serious problems for the banking system in Europe. According to Bloomberg experts, decline rates of euro-deposits 0.5% increase costs of banks associated with the maintenance of negative rates, up to 60%.


Not pleased investors and the continuing fall in oil prices. Saudi Arabia is making a lot of effort in order to maintain the price of "black gold" at least at the current level, but the results of these steps are called into question;

 

- GBP / USD and USD / JPY. Most experts on both these couples had expected a decline. And if you look at the results of the week, the overall prediction is correct, although the goals are not achieved by any one of them. Thus, 75% of analysts expect to see a pair GBP / USD near 1.2000, but at least one week was recorded slightly higher - at the level of 1.2025. Thus, the loss of the British pound against the dollar amounted to about 135 points.

 

- As for the USD / JPY, then, in contrast to the pound, the yen continued to strengthen against the US currency. Analysts (60%) expect that the pair will be able to reach a minimum in January 2019 in the area of ​​105.00. However, the fall was stopped at the horizon 105.40 (minus 120 points per week), followed by a hang-up, and the pair has completed five days at around 105.65;

 

- cryptocurrency. Former CEO of Google and Facebook Abihail Garg sure that the real domination of Bitcoins on kriptorynke significantly higher than the index, which is published kriptovalyutnye services, and actually exceeds 75%. According to Garga, it is necessary to revise the existing standards of measurement, as they now account for a huge number of altkoinov zero liquidity. And it is not excluded that we will soon see, as a proportion of Bitcoin step over the mark of 80% or even 90%. The argument in favor of this development is that the BTC is becoming very popular safe haven. «Bitcoin has shown himself as a hedge against global risk, because it shows a positive correlation with gold and negative - from stock markets' - This opinion was expressed co-founder and senior analyst Fundstrat Tom Lee in an interview with CNBC television. And looking at the charts last week, we can not agree with him. Usually top altkoiny repeated the dynamics of the main cryptocurrency. Now, despite the fact that the BTC / USD pair has shown steady growth, adding a week to about $ 1,500, and a foothold in the region of $ 11,550-12,120, basic altkoyny including laytkoyn (LTC / USD), Ethereum (ETH / USD) and Ripple (XRP / USD), graduated sevenday in the red zone. Although, of course, too early to definitively bury them. According to some experts, a number of alternative cryptocurrency (eg, the same Ethereum) may be a free-standing blokcheynami, is no longer considered altkoynami. The others will go into oblivion as useless. Usually top altkoiny repeated the dynamics of the main cryptocurrency. Now, despite the fact that the BTC / USD pair has shown steady growth, adding a week to about $ 1,500, and a foothold in the region of $ 11,550-12,120, basic altkoyny including laytkoyn (LTC / USD), Ethereum (ETH / USD) and Ripple (XRP / USD), graduated sevenday in the red zone. Although, of course, too early to definitively bury them. According to some experts, a number of alternative cryptocurrency (eg, the same Ethereum) may be a free-standing blokcheynami, is no longer considered altkoynami. The others will go into oblivion as useless. Usually top altkoiny repeated the dynamics of the main cryptocurrency. Now, despite the fact that the BTC / USD pair has shown steady growth, adding a week to about $ 1,500, and a foothold in the region of $ 11,550-12,120, basic altkoyny including laytkoyn (LTC / USD), Ethereum (ETH / USD) and Ripple (XRP / USD), graduated sevenday in the red zone. Although, of course, too early to definitively bury them. According to some experts, a number of alternative cryptocurrency (eg, the same Ethereum) may be a free-standing blokcheynami, is no longer considered altkoynami. The others will go into oblivion as useless. Ethereum (ETH / USD) and Ripple (XRP / USD), graduated sevenday in the red zone. Although, of course, too early to definitively bury them. According to some experts, a number of alternative cryptocurrency (eg, the same Ethereum) may be a free-standing blokcheynami, is no longer considered altkoynami. The others will go into oblivion as useless. Ethereum (ETH / USD) and Ripple (XRP / USD), graduated sevenday in the red zone. Although, of course, too early to definitively bury them. According to some experts, a number of alternative cryptocurrency (eg, the same Ethereum) may be a free-standing blokcheynami, is no longer considered altkoynami. The others will go into oblivion as useless.

 

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

 

- EUR / USD. If H4 and trend indicators and oscillators are still focused on the north, on the D1 picture is quite different - about half of the indicators are colored red, while another 15% oscillators provide signals about overbought. Also on the side of the bears stood graphical analysis at H4 and 60% of the experts, who are waiting for that, rebounding from the resistance 1.1200, the pair will test the second support in the 1.1025 area. In their view, the euro quotes at 1.1200 is now supported mainly due to the growth of interest in protective assets. However, the delicate balance, in addition to the situation with Brexit and new aggravation of the political situation in Italy, can disrupt even the weak data on GDP growth in the euro area, which will be launched on Wednesday 14 August.

On the strengthening of the dollar may also play a reducing budget deficits and positive inflation data in the US. About what are these figures in fact, it will be known on Monday, August 12 and Tuesday, August 14 respectively.

The remaining 40% of analysts vote for the pair to 1.1275-1.1345 zone. Their forecast is based on the expectation of a recession and further reduction in US interest rates. Thus, the Wall Street Journal, analysts estimate the chances of a recession in the next 12 months to 33.6% (last year - 18.3%), which is the highest figure since 2011. But predicting the rate change, experts believe that by the end of 2019 it will fall from 2.25% to 1.85%;

 

- GBP / USD. On Tuesday morning, 13 August, the United Kingdom will present a portion of labor market data, which is expected, at best neutral, at worst - weak. As for inflation, its performance, which will be launched in August 14, is likely to remain at the same level. In general, experts do not expect any pound next week any changes, because the forecast and they can be classified as neutral.

As for technical analysis, trend indicators 100% and most oscillators H4 and D1 painted red. It indicates the continuation of a pair of incidence and graphical analysis. Thus already 25% oscillators indicate pereprodannost pair that is a strong signal for a reversal of the trend and the upcoming correction.

Support levels: the low of January 2017. - 1.1985 October 2016. - 1.1945. Levels of resistance: 1.2210, 1.2415, 1.2525;   

 

- USD / JPY. As has been said, investors craving to hide their money in safe havens continues to grow. And 35% of analysts believe that the Japanese currency will continue to play the role of a harbor, and because falling of pair will continue until minimum 3 January 2019. at the level of 105.00. Next support - at least March 2018. 104.60. We agree with this scenario graphical analysis on H4 and 85% and 100% oscillator trend indicators to H4 and D1.

30% of the experts were unable to forecast, and the remaining 35%, along with graphical analysis on D1 voted for reversal trend upwards and lifting the pair to the 107.00-108.00 zone. This scenario is supported and 15% oscillators provide signals about oversold.   

It should be noted that during the transition from weekly to forecast medium-term, the number of supporters among the experts bulls rises sharply - from 35% to 65%, and as the main target is called the height of 109.00;

 

- cryptocurrency. Tom Lee sure to become, along with the yen and gold, safe haven, bitcoin will rise to $ 20,000. A similar view was expressed by co-founder of Morgan Creek Anthony Pompliano. According to him, central banks in the near future will begin mass buying Bitcoins to hedge dollar risks that emerged against the backdrop of tensions between the US and China. Positive quotes on the first cryptocurrency impact and "epidemic" of reducing controls interest rates. Another strength of the Bitcoin is its projected emissions and limited supply.

3 months reference cryptocurrency increased by 93% and now it is the immediate task - to update the high of June 2019. in the area of ​​$ 14,000. With such a prognosis agree more 70% of the experts, though, in their opinion, it can happen by the end of August. This coming week is probably a couple more will continue to move along the horizon $ 12,000.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.

 

 

Views: 8 | Added by: mik | Rating: 0.0/0
Total comments: 0
Only registered users can add comments.
[ Registration | Login ]
Search
Forex Brokers
WELCOME 35USD
Calendar
«  August 2019  »
SuMoTuWeThFrSa
    123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728293031
Entries archive
Our poll
Rate my site
Total of answers: 40
Site friends
  • Create a free website
  • Online Desktop
  • Free Online Games
  • Video Tutorials
  • All HTML Tags
  • Browser Kits
  • Rating
    Copyright Bonus-FX.com © 2019-2012
    Website builderuCoz