First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. On Thursday, November 7 US markets reached historical highs shoot duties as signing a trade agreement after the partition of the US preparedness messages and China. Speculators turned back to the traditional quiet havens such as bonds, yen and gold. Cheaper against the dollar and become the European currency - investors expect improving US economic indicators after the end of the US-China trade war. And although the signing of a full agreement still very far away, analysts believe that Donald Trump will no longer take any drastic movements in anticipation of the upcoming US presidential election.
For the depreciation of the euro last week voted 40% of experts, supported by graphical analysis. On perekuplennost European currency and pointed oscillators 10%, which is sufficiently strong signal for a trend change. In the event of a side channel breakdown of the lower limit of 1.1075-1.1175, the bearish scenario provides for the reduction of the pair to the support at 1.1000 zone. What happened in reality - by the end of the weekly session, the pair visited at around 1.1016, and the finale was set at 1.1020;
- GBP / USD. As expected, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.75%. But what did not expect analysts, it's the fact that two of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a rate cut to 0.50%. These two voices enough to pound lost more than 70 points.
In general, as expected, the pound followed in the wake of the euro. And if the EUR / USD has lost five days about 150 points, the British pound fell by 170 points, ending the week at 1.2780;
- USD / JPY. As mentioned above, the progress on the US-China talks affected the attractiveness of the yen as a safe-haven currency. As a result of the fall of the Japanese currency against the US dollar at a maximum on Thursday 7 November amounted to 130 points. The end of the five days pair met at 109.22;
- cryptocurrency. As for the news background, so much affecting the digital currency quotes, the last week does not particularly outstanding was not marked. Therefore bitcoin until Friday quietly moving along the line of consolidation in the hallway $ 9,100-9,500. However, on November 8 brought disappointment to investors and traders to open a long position. Reference cryptocurrency abruptly went down and lost a few hours of 6% of the value, found the local bottom at $ 8,680.
What was the reason for this decline is uniquely difficult to say. Fans refer to the technical analysis narrows the triangle on the 4-hour chart BTC / USD. The reason could be the news and on the next - the seventh this year - breaking kriptovalyutnoy Exchange. This time, the hackers withdrew from Vietnam Exchange VinDAX means 23 digital assets totaling approximately $ 500 thousand.
Speaking of digital assets. The last week is interesting that a number of top altkoynov did not follow in the wake of the main cryptocurrency and demonstrated an independent dynamics. Unlike departed south bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH / USD) ibid sevenday completed, and where it started, and laytkoyn (LTC / USD) so generally potyazhelel 5%.
According behaved differently ripple. It should be noted that, despite the efforts of the company's management Ripple, the clouds over this token continues to thicken. For 2018-19g.g. he "shriveled" at 90%. Is no exception and held seven-day period. Weekly volatility of the pair XRP / USD was about 14%, and on Friday, 7 November, she fell to the level of 0.2710.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. Next week we are waiting for a lot of important economic events. Among them is the speech of the Fed Jerome Powell to the US Congress in the middle of the week. Also on the formation of local trends can influence data on US inflation on Wednesday 13 November, euro area GDP estimate on Thursday 14 November, and data on retail sales in the US on Friday, November 15th.
At the rate of inflation in the United States should pay particular attention, because if inflation in October will be significantly lower than forecast, the Fed next month may decide to fourth this year's reduction of interest rates.
And, of course, the market will listen closely to the news on the progress of the US-China trade war. Very much of a chance that the optimism associated with the decision of the parties gradually abolish customs tariffs, will continue this week. Investors are also waiting for a positive by US President Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in December. That is why 65% of the experts voted for the further strengthening of the dollar and the depreciation of the euro to 1.0940-1.0990 area. A further aim - at least 1 October 1.0880.
Graphical analysis and indicators show a rare unanimity with analysts - 90% and 100% of the oscillators indicators painted red.
Expect growth of pair is only 20% of experts and 10% of the oscillators signaling an oversold it. The nearest 1.1075 resistance zone, then 1.1110 and 1.1180.
Finally, the remaining 15% of the analysts talk about sideways. Over the past four weeks, the pair formed a biceps peak, and experts expect that for some time it will stay at its base, moving in a range 1.0990-1.1075;
- GBP / USD. Due to the uncertainty due Brexit, the UK economy is experiencing continued difficulties. In the 2nd quarter of this year there was a decline in the construction industry by 1.3% and industrial production drop caused by, including the closure of several automobile plants. For this reason, data on UK GDP in the 3rd quarter, which will be announced on Monday, November 11, can cause serious British currency jumps. According to the forecast, GDP growth could reach 0.3% against -0.2% in the previous quarter, which will push up the pair.
But the main driver of quotations pair GBP / USD will remain dollar. As is the case with the euro, strengthening it and fall of the pound waiting for 65% of the experts, graphic analysis on D1 and the vast majority of indicators. Support at 1.2700, 1.2650 and 1.2550.
As for the remaining 35% of analysts, they believe that, having reached the lower boundary of a three-week side channel 1.2770-1.3000, the pair will turn around and go to the north. We agree and 15% oscillators H4 and D1, feeding signals about oversold;
- USD / JPY. Similar to the euro and the pound and the situation with the Japanese currency. It also puts pressure on improving US macroeconomic indicators and China after signing a "peace treaty."
On Thursday, November 14, there are data on the growth of Japan's GDP in the 3rd quarter. Analysts are already predicting a slowdown in the Japanese economy. So that the Japanese yen in the short term will be another reason for the weakening agree with what 65% of the experts. The nearest resistance level - 109.50, etc. - 110.00 and 110.70.
For the strengthening of the yen and the fall of the pair have voted only 10% of analysts and 25% believe that the pair will go to the lateral movement along the Pivot Point 109.00;
- cryptocurrency. fear and greed index Bitcoin - Crypto Fear & Greed Index, by the end of the week has deviated from the average value, and shifted closer to the zone of fear. According to the classical interpretation, it is its location - an occasion to reflect on the opening of long positions. However, recently, investors have become much more cautious and expect sharp price hikes of all kinds of traps and pitfalls.
Pessimism and retain 60% of the experts. Thus, according to Bloomberg analysts, until the end of the first year cryptocurrency it has a chance to fall to the level of $ 8,000. The pair BTC / USD, as has been said, will interfere with the sale due to concerns "burned." However, despite this, 40% of the experts believe that bitcoin will still be able to meet the offensive in 2020 in the zone of $ 10,500-11,000.
For those who do not want to get nervous, watching the daily schedule of quotations, advice from the Director of the US Bitcoin exchanger BitInstant Shrema Charlie (Charlie Shrem). In his opinion, "the best way to invest in bitcoin - is hidden from 5 to 10 BTC in a cool purse and so that you yourself could not get access to them for 20 years." "I really think - Shrem said - that in 20 years 5-10 bitcoins will be the money that will change your life for the better. Bitcoin will survive even a nuclear catastrophe, while banks and paper money literally burn up. "
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: This material is not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.