First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. On Thursday, the pair fell after the ECB statement of March 7 that it is not necessary to wait for increase in the autumn of this year interest rates. The earliest this could happen - 2020. In addition, it became known that the European regulator plans to launch in September LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) - European banks refinancing programs at low interest rates. If we add to this reduction in forecasts for GDP and inflation, and not the best for the euro area statistics on China's foreign trade, the picture for the euro develops quite sad.
As a result, by mid-Friday, the pair slid to the summer of 2017, the value (1.1175), literally leaping beyond the medium-term corridor 1.1215-1.1570. However, published March 8 data on the labor market in the US (NFP) allowed the bulls to reverse the trend upwards. After January, the number of new jobs was 311K, it was expected that in February, this figure will be equal to 180K. In reality, however, the result was many times worse - just 20K, allowing more time to talk about the stagnation in the US economy and return the pair to 1.1235 level;
- GBP / USD. As expected by most analysts (60%), ahead of re-vote in the British Parliament on the deal with the EU, which should take place on March 12 pound continued to fall, losing a week about 200 points and reached the values in the area of 1.3000;
- USD / JPY. Recall that last week, about 20% of the oscillators at the H4 and D1 have already served signals overbought the pair, which allows to expect a sufficiently strong downward correction. What happened in reality - Yen played almost losing the last week of February and completed a five-day period at the level of 111.15;
- cryptocurrency. The last month and a half bitcoin slow and not very confident, but still growing. Someone, of course, in the 16% increase can inspire some hope. But if you look at the chart clearly shows that any efforts bulls immediately met active resistance from the bears, who categorically do not want to release a major cryptocurrency beyond the 15-week highs. Therefore, it is still possible to talk about consolidation in the BTC area $ 3,900.
As for capitalization kriptorynka, then here it looks quite prosaic and monotonous - since the end of December, its volumes fluctuate in a narrow range between $ 110 billion to $ 135 billion (not counting one-time surge to $ 141 billion).
From top altkoinov most showed vivid growth laytkoin (LTC / USD), which added a half months, almost 90%. In Ethereum (ETH / USD), this figure looks much more modest - plus 30%, and Ripley (XRP / USD) growth was only 10%.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
Week from 11 to 15 March will be literally full of events, each of which is capable not only to cause a rise in volatility, but also lead to a change in the direction of the trend.
So, on Monday, March 11 in Brussels will host a meeting of eurozone finance ministers. And on the same day in the evening will be known data on the US "The retail control group", which, according to forecasts, may be slightly strengthened dollar.
Tuesday also will not do without the publication of economic data from the US, this time the consumer price indices. It is necessary to pay attention to the speech of the Fed Dzh.Pauella monetary policy. On Wednesday, we are waiting for a report on the budget of the UK, as well as statistics on retail sales and industrial production in China. On Thursday we will know what is happening with consumer prices in Germany, and on Friday hear a comment Haruhiko Kuroda on the prospects for monetary policy the Bank of Japan.
But all of these rather important events pales before what should happen on Tuesday 12 March in the capital of the British Kingdom. That day in the UK Parliament held a second vote on Brexit conditions, and, in the case of another failure of the Prime Minister May, lawmakers will be able to vote for the March 13th postponement of the negotiation and transfer of Brexit at a later date. Theoretically not excluded even repeated referendum on the UK exit from the EU.
These ballots can affect not only the quotes of major world currencies, but also for the future of the world economy as a whole. In the meantime, analysts' opinions are as follows:
- EUR / USD. 60% of the experts, supported by nearly 90% oscillators and trend indicators expected to fall further euro 1.1100-1.1125 zone. It should be noted that at the transition to the prediction for the second half of March 60% analysts are already on the side of the bulls, awaiting the return of a pair of echelon 1.1400-1.1500;
- GBP / USD. For the pair decrease to the level of 1.2850-1.2900 today voted 65% of the experts. However, the transition to a more long-term forecasts, as well as in the case of Euro, the majority (60%) expects strengthening British currency and its first growth to a maximum of February (1.3350) and then by 200 points higher;
- USD / JPY. Despite the fall in the pair last week, it remains within the ascending channel, which was launched in the beginning of January 2019. That is why 60% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on the D1, believe that the pair will overcome the bar at 112.00, after which she will move in the sideways channel 112.25-113.70 as it was in November and December last year.
An alternative point of view supports 40% of the experts, who believe that a couple has not yet reached its local bottom, which is located in the zone 109.70-110.10;
- cryptocurrency. There is a saying - "How many people - so many opinions." The well-known kriptotreyder and one of the top authors on the pseudonym TradingView MagicPoopCannon conducted a survey among its followers on Twitter, asking them to give an answer about the long-term price of Bitcoin. In the vote was attended by about 3 thousand. Subscribers. According to their responses, the majority (42%) believes that in the next four years the price of Bitcoins will be between $ 100,000 and $ 1 million, 30% cited a figure between $ 20,000 and $ 100,000, 13% - ranging from $ 3,000 to $ 20,000 and 15% cryptocurrency predicted this most gloomy future, describing the range of $ 0 to $ 3,000.
As for the forecast for the near future, then, according to most experts, is likely to pair BTC / USD will continue to move in the range of $ 3,600-4,300, waiting for some really serious news, which will help to break the boundaries of the channel in a suit either direction.
Roman Butko, NordFX