First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. One of the scenarios, supported, however, only 30% of the experts, is expected to fall to the bottom border pair medium side channel 1.1300-1.1500. What happened - lost about 130 pips, the pair recorded a weekly low at 1.1320.
The reason for the strengthening of the dollar and, as a result, falling of pair began to increase anti-risk sentiment due to increased pessimism to resolve US-China trade conflict and not the most favorable expectations for economic growth in the euro area. So, the European Commission, spoke of "significant risks" significantly lowered its forecast of GDP growth - from 1.9% to 1.3% in 2019 and from 1.7% to 1.6% in 2020. This adjustment had a significant pressure on the euro, allowing the market to understand what to expect higher interest rates this year, it is not necessary;
- GBP / USD. In unison with the European Commission and the Bank of England said that its previous forecasts were too optimistic, and the lack of clarity with Brexit is a burden for the economy. Bank experts expect that the growth rate will be the lowest in the past 10 years, resulting in a forecast for UK GDP for 2019 was lowered from 1.7% to 1.2%.
In these negative news pound sank sharply and is expected 65% of the experts, the pair hit 1.2850. She then rose slightly against the background of articles on the possible progress in the UK at the exit from the EU negotiations and the special conditions for Ireland, and then slipped again and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.2940;
- USD / JPY. Most analysts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, expected strong jumps and falling rate zone pairs to 108.00-108.55, after which it was supposed to return to the horizontal 110.00. However, contrary to predictions, the couple behaved very calmly, and the maximum amplitude of its fluctuations did not exceed 60 points. The third week in a row, over and over again, the couple returns to the zone 109.55-110.00. And at this time, began a week-long session at the level of 109.55, the pair has completed its at 109.75;
- cryptocurrency. Last week we divided into two groups of experts. The first - those who believe that the current lull - this is the calm before the storm. Second - it's the calm before the calm ... even more. All week Bitcoin quotes smoothly and quietly declined, reaching on Wednesday 6 February low at $ 3,400. Then came the really quite sluggish, "outset", and that in the second half of Friday "exploded" - a pair of BTC / USD rushed up a few hours adding about 12% and reached the level of $ 3,800.
Is this a harbinger of the storm? If you look at the graph H1, of course. However, on the daily time frame, all is not so impressive - the pair only returned to the consolidation of the line (or the Pivot Point), along which moves for 11 weeks from the end of November 2018.
The reason for growth was published in Tweeter fragment of an interview with one of the four commissioners of the SEC - Robert Jackson, who said that the Securities and Exchange Commission may still allow the execution of Bitcoin, an ETF-funds.
Following the Bitcoin (BTC / USD), and the rest went up top cryptocurrency. The greatest growth was laytkoyn (LTC / USD), adding to the maximum 40% and reached the price of $ 46.00. Ethereum rose to $ 124.70, and Ripple (XRP / USD) has reached a height of $ 0.3250.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. It is clear that after a week's rally in the south the main indicators of the mass is colored in red. However, over 25% of the oscillators and H4 and D1 provide signals of rate oversold, suggesting, if not a complete reversal of the trend, then, at least, of an approaching strong correction.
Graphic for the next five days, the analysis draws sideways movement in the range of 1.1285-1.1400, before the end of the month, the couple must return to the upper boundary of the medium channel in the area of 1.1500.
The expert community is not yet defined - 50% expect falling of pair, 50% - of its growth, due to the lack of any clear and Brexit, and on US-China negotiations. In addition, the events of the coming week, and can make their own adjustments. Here it should be noted the publication of data on the GDP of Germany and the EU on Thursday 14 February, as well as on inflation and retail sales in the United States on 13 and 14 February.
Also on Tuesday, February 12 the market will wait for the signal from the head of the Federal Reserve Dzh.Pauella regarding a possible rise in interest rates. While the level of expectations of a recession in the US has risen to 20%, and it is possible that the issue of the rates will be postponed until better times. EU and UK regulators are also constantly being told about the risks to economic growth, which should entail for an easing of monetary policy.
According to many experts, it gives reason to think about buying shares on the stock market, as the slowdown in economic growth, while maintaining easy money could lead to an increase in their prices. It makes sense to pay attention to the portfolio investments in shares of the most reliable and promising companies in the world, which offers its clients brokerage company NordFX;
- GBP / USD. On Monday, February 11 will be released in the GDP data for the light, and on Wednesday, February 13 - Inflation in the UK. Most likely, they will indicate a slowdown in the economy, as mentioned above. Thus, the projected GDP growth will decrease compared to the previous quarter from 0.6% to 0.2%. But as many months, a major influence on the quotes will provide news and rumors about Brexit.
There is another category of rumors - that some international companies to buy the British currency, as gently hinted Bloomberg, and it provides some support to the pound.
Currently 60% of analysts voted for strengthening pounds and rise to the horizon 1.3040 pairs, and then for another 80-100 paragraphs above. The remaining 40% of the experts, on the contrary, expect decrease in pair at least to the level of 1.2830. But graphical analysis H4 took a compromise position, indicating that the pair may first be reduced to the level of 1.2830, and only then proceed to grow, reaching a height of 1.3040;
- USD / JPY. mood color - gray, ie neutral. As the experts, as well as in the indicators. On one side of the scale strengthening of the US dollar against major world currencies. On the other - the increased risks of global economic slowdown and the next round of tensions between the US and China, which entails an increase in the demand for a safe haven, as the Japanese Yen. All the previous week the pair has held in a narrow range of 109.55-110.15, which indicates the full market uncertainty and does not allow at this time to make any forecast;
- cryptocurrency. The full interview SEC Commissioner Robert Jackson will be released next week and its contents can both push quotes on up, and have the opposite effect. After all, whatever you say, but the Commission on the Securities and Exchange Commission has for nearly 240 days to make a final decision on the application to run Bitcoin-ETF, and during this time a lot can change.
In the meantime, as the main scenario for the pair BTC / USD experts called her move in the range of $ 3,250-3,800. At the same time they do not rule out short-term breakdown of the top border and lift the pair to a level of $ 4,000.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.