First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. It seems that Mario Draghi has already lost the ability to influence the market, which is waiting for the arrival of his place the new head of the ECB. At the very least, quite soft rhetoric Draghi and his discussion of the possible - once! - quantitative easing, voiced on Thursday, investors took quite calmly. It does not weaken the euro and a statement that the expected rate hike is not worth at least until the middle of next year. As a result, surprisingly, the press conference of the ECB leadership has played into the hands of the European currency, and the pair went up to the mark above 1.1300. This was followed by a smooth rollback to the level of 1.1250, and ... a new breakthrough to the north at the time of publication of labor market data in the US on Friday, June 7.
The experts were aware of the fact that the NFP figure (the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural. Sector) can "dry up" about 30%, but the decline in the 3-fold (from 224K up to 75 K) is expected to almost no one. As a result, the pair soared to 1.1345 mark, the weekly and the fluctuation was 180 points. As for the end of the five-day week, then at the end of the trading session for 1 euro gave 1.1333 dollars;
- GBP / USD. It is said that the lack of news - this is good news. Following a statement by Prime Minister Theresa May resignation of any significant events in the British Isles was not, which allowed the pound all week, step by step, to strengthen its position. President of Trump's visit to Queen Elizabeth II came to the front pages of the secular, but not the economic chronicle. And efforts Mae, which sent the remnants of its influence to prevent a "hard» Brexit, could only support a little upward trend of the British currency. The same applies to the weak statistics on employment in the US. As a result, the couple returned to the highs a week ago, putting the final chord virtually wherever and pointed analysts expected correction - at the level of 1.2733;
- USD / JPY. Recall that the voices of experts last week were divided as follows: 50% - were on the side of the bears, 25% - on the side of the bulls, and 25% froze in confusion in the middle. We can say that it is this discordance and is reflected in the chart of the pair.
Quotes of the yen against the dollar strongly correlated with US Treasury bonds. last fall ended on Monday, June 3, stopping and falling of pair below 107.80. Then, the dollar began to regain its position, and the time of publication of NFP reached a height of 108.65 data, and the pair went down sharply, bottomed at 107.88 and closed the week at the level of 108.18;
- cryptocurrency. "Halal" was declared in Egypt in accordance with Sharia law bitcoin. The new regulation abolishes the ban on cryptocurrency, in force since 2018, and this is perhaps the best news of the week. In general, the news background was mostly neutral. In the absence of news, as expected by many analysts, despite the attempts to develop a pair of upward correction continued - bulls taking profits, and this sale has stopped the influx of new investors. If on Friday, May 31 pairs of BTC / USD is at $ 9,100, the Thursday, June 06, she recorded a local minimum, dropping to $ 7,450 and lost in six days of 18%.
Schedule Ethereum (ETH / USD) is almost completely repeated the dynamics of elder brother - Bitcoin. But the ripple and laytkoyn were much more capable of "regeneration". So, XRP / USD pair almost came back to the values of the end of the previous week, and LTC / USD even slightly exceeded them.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. Speech by Mario Draghi June 6 has pushed the euro up. On Wednesday, June 12 we are waiting for another of his speech, in which investors are still hoping to get a more precise guidance on the ECB's monetary policy for the foreseeable future. Another source of operational information for the market is the president of the Trump Twitter, in which he often shares information and plans for their trade wars, especially with China.
As for the exact figures, the coming week will be devoted to inflation. On Wednesday, the CPI index will publish the National Bureau of Statistics of China, on Wednesday and Friday will be known index of consumer prices in the US, and on Thursday, June 13 - in Germany.
In the meantime, experts' opinions were divided as follows. 60%, supported by graphical analysis on D1 and 20% oscillators, feeding signals about overbought expect that it would try to break through the support and re-test 1.1215 minima in the area 1.1100. An alternative view is held by 40% of the experts and the vast majority of oscillators and trend indicators. If they are right, a pair can be fixed above the level of 1.1400, while aiming to 1.1525 resistance;
- GBP / USD. At the beginning of the coming week is likely to become known candidates for the post of the leader of the British Conservative Party. More or less, and the balance will be clear how many votes they can get, advancing to the post of prime minister, and how, consequently, the probability of a "hard» Brexit and out of the EU without agreement.
At the moment, 55% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on the H4, continue to be on the side of the bulls, and 45% - on the side of the bears. In relation trend indicators exactly the same - 55% for the pair and 45% - for its fall. A somewhat different picture of the oscillators. There, despite the overwhelming advantage of "green", 10% of indicators to H4 and signals D1 serves overbought, which may indicate either a sufficiently strong correction, or the beginning of a trend reversal downwards.
Certain influence on the behavior of the pair may have data on the labor market in the UK, which will be published on Tuesday 11 June. But, more likely, it could be argued that the effect of this will be a gentle and short-lived;
- USD / JPY. It is also unlikely to have an impact on the market and GDP data for Japan, which will be launched on Monday, June 10th. The main drivers are still the profitability of US government bonds, the price of oil and the course of the US-China negotiations. In such a situation of uncertainty, 40% of analysts have turned their sights to the north, 40% - to the south and 20% - to the east. Major support levels are 107.75 and 107.00, resistance levels - 109.15, 109.65, 110.35 and 110.65;
- cryptocurrency. whether the current correction Bitcoin will in fact only temporary? Or is it the beginning of a new downtrend? The debate about how useful ways to analyze traffic fiatnyh currencies to digital currencies, erupted with renewed vigor.
Proponents of the theory of growth, of course, are bitcoins holders who are trying to warm up the market with all sorts of news. For example, the founder of the company Dadiani Syndicate announced that it had received from one of the customers order for the purchase of 25% of the issued and currently bitcoins (which is about 4.5 million coins, worth about $ 36 billion). Another news - just the beginning of June the largest BTC-wallets raised $ 2.72 billion But if so, why, despite the influx of these billions, The BTC course / USD fell by 18% in six days.?
Although, in fairness, it should be noted that at the end of the working week - 07 June bitcoin, and basic altkoyny attempted to recover, and the BTC / USD pair back to $ 7,800-8,000 area, which can be roughly considered Pivot Point last three weeks.
As for the opinion of analysts, at the moment 50% of them believe that the pair should sink to the horizon $ 7,000, 30% - for the return of the zone above $ 9,000, and the remaining 20% - for the lateral movement in the channel $ 7,500-8,450.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.