First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. Our forecast is relatively weak labor market data was correct at 100%. Not pleased neither ADP nor ISM in services, and one of the key indicators, Nonfarm Payrolls, fell from 237K to 155K, ie by as much as 35%.
Faithful was also forecast for the consolidation of the pair near 1.1350 - last week she went to the lateral movement in the channel of 1.1310-1.1415 with Pivot Point in the zone 1.1350-1.1360.
The difference between the maximum and minimum weekly barely exceeded 100 points, while seemingly important events during those days was quite a lot. It also referred to the statistics on the US labor market, complete with a decrease in GDP of the country, and the OPEC meeting and the statement on Iran's oil, and the arrest of US law enforcement Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou ... But all of this pair reacted quite calmly. The reason for this is seen only one - the approach of Christmas, a time when the market sharks fed their annual results and will not want to take any sudden movements;
- GBP / USD. This steam also behaved quite calmly, albeit with somewhat greater volatility - the fluctuation was about 180 points. Expected to fall to 1.2600-1.2620 area has not taken place, and a couple, barely reaching 1.2655, turned around and went to the Pivot Point of the week, completing the five-day period at the level of 1.2725;
- USD / JPY. Last week, experts' opinions were evenly divided: one half voted for the pair, and the second - for its fall. In this situation, we advise to switch from weekly to longer-term outlook, and they were right. Here the picture was already different: the majority of analysts (65%), supported by graphical analysis, is expected to strengthen the yen and the decline of the pair to 112.00 zone. What happened - recouping losses of the previous two weeks, it reached a level of 112.20. The end of the trading session the pair met at the level of 112.70, ie in the same place has been trading in mid-November;
- cryptocurrency. Nothing special and nothing to say - charts clearly confirm that the true worst forecasts. 60% of the experts predicted a further fall in Bitcoins, and on Friday night he recorded another year low at $ 3,275, losing in seven days, an additional 16%. Following the "reference" (already quoted) cryptocurrency, fell further down and altkoiny. Ethereum (ETH / USD) per week fell by 24%, laytkoyn (LTC / USD) - 26%, and the ripple (XRP / USD) - 18%.
According to Ernst & Young, 86% of all coins is now trading significantly below the initially declared value, and kriptorynka capitalization has fallen to 113 bln. Dollars, having lost over 11 months of exactly 700 billion. (86%).
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. As already stated, the market comes the time of fixation of the annual profit. Or loss (it's someone like). However, next week is expected to yield a number of macroeconomic data that may still affect the quotations change.
So, on Wednesday, December 12, there are data on inflation in the US, and the higher it will be, the higher the likelihood of interest rate rises, the better to feel the dollar. So far, judging by futures players and investors do not particularly rely on the fact that the Fed will raise rates in March next year.
On Thursday, December 13 is expected decision on interest rates in the euro area. Most likely, nothing will change, and the rate will remain at zero, so more attention should be paid to the subsequent press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi.
On Friday we are waiting for statistics on retail sales in the US. And, of course, throughout the week the market will closely monitor the reports from the theater of operations of the US-China trade war. Another escalation in the conflict was caused by the arrest of Huawei CFO, and everyone is waiting for, how to behave in this situation the president of Trump.
While the vast majority of experts and indicators took a neutral position. Very slight advantage have bulls, naming as a target zone 1.1500-1.1550. Support at 1.1265 and 1.1215. The main forecast virtually the same scenario last week - the movement channel 1.1310-1.1415;
- GBP / USD. Here analysts' forecast is similar to what has been given on the EUR / USD - the advantage of bulls only 5%. But almost 90% of trend indicators and oscillators 70% are colored red. The formation of trend data on UK GDP may affect, which will be launched on Monday, December 10, and the average wage on Tuesday 11 December. But of particular interest is a vote in the British Parliament on Brexit, which will take place at the same time, on Tuesday. Recall that, according to forecasts, the parliamentarians may not approve the agreement on EU exit conditions, and then re-vote will be scheduled for February 2019. That will play against the pound. Support at 1.2660, 1.2540 and 1.2500, resistance - 1.2810 1.2850 1.29250;
- USD / JPY. On Monday, December 10 released statistics on Japan's GDP and, in fact, is the only data from the country of the Rising Sun, which may affect the pair quotes. Much more attention is paid to investors the course of a trade war between China and the United States and the use of the yen as a safe-haven currency. That is why the majority of experts (65%), with the support of trend indicators, vote for the strengthening of the Japanese yen and the fall of the pair to the support at least 112.20. Next support on the horizon 111.75, then 110.85. As for the resistance, they are located in areas of 113.20, 113.65 and 114.00.
Graphical analysis also indicates a drop pair. However, on the H4, he suggests that it first rises to a height of 113.10, but then unfold to the south.
- cryptocurrency. Initially decentralized state market is increasingly hamstrings regulation that creates an additional negative news background. That is what awaits the crypto community in the near future:
In South Korea, want to impose a tax on gains from cryptocurrency; in Japan, in addition to state registration of all ICO, crypto-Exchange will be obliged at the request of the tax authorities to reveal information about the income of the client; Singapore ICO, all participants of the market must now be licensed and to take measures to combat money laundering; Switzerland is also planning a number of amendments to the legislation. And so on.
It seems that, while recognizing the benefits and opportunities blokcheyna, many states intend to put the current crypto-freemen end and begin to produce their own digital money (as already engaged in Honduras and Iran). But this is not one day.
In the meantime, analysts' opinions are as follows: 65% expect a further fall to $ 2,500-3,000 area, 25% voted in favor of sideways along the horizon $ 3,000 and 10%, as before, remain optimistic, expecting to return in the medium term bitokoyna to levels of $ 4,000-5,000 .
Roman Butko, NordFX