First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. As expected, the final day of the G20 summit in Osaka, the US President's meeting with Donald Trump's President Xi Jinping end a trade war is not put. Leaders could only agree on a respite in the fighting and the resumption of trade and economic consultations. However, this result is the market took with moderate optimism. All Monday, the dollar strengthened their position, dropping a couple of almost 100 points. This was followed by a long lull, which on Friday was able to break the only publication of US labor market data. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (the NFP), rose in June compared to May, more than three times (from 72K to 224K), which allowed the dollar even more to press the euro. The pair almost reached the level of 1.1200, followed by a slight rebound,
- GBP / USD. The main candidate for the post of Prime Minister of Great Britain - Boris Johnson, continues to play a role for the markets "horror stories". Johnson's statements about the possibility of a "hard" without the deal, the UK exit from the EU put pressure on the pound, dropping his quotes to the levels of the end of 2016 - beginning 2017g.g. Naturally, the impact on the dynamics of the pair and the positive statistics from the US labor market. As a result of the forecast, who last week gave the majority of the experts, it turned out to be true. As expected, couple recorded local minimum in the area of 1.2480, and then rose to 45 points, and wherein the working end of five days met;
- USD / JPY. Recall that anything was not possible to form a clear outlook on this pair a week ago. For the strengthening of the Japanese yen and the movement of the pair to the south then voted 40% of the experts. Another 30% have turned their eyes to the north, while the remaining analysts simply threw up his hands. As a result, they were right: the middle of the week the pair fell to the level of 107.52 and then turned up and on Friday July 5 returned to the highs Monday 1 July. Thus, in five days the dollar was able to play in the yen only about 55 points, almost stay in the boundaries of the corridor side of the first half of June this year;
- cryptocurrency. Last Tuesday, a pair of BTC / USD has updated two-week low, falling to $ 9.725. That is, after the explosive growth in May and June by 155% in just seven days from June 26 to July 2 the price of bitcoin lost almost half of that earned during these two months. In such volatility cryptocurrency no surprise. And many experts say the possibility of correction of 30% or even 50%. That's only if you can call such fluctuations "correction"?
After the fall of bitcoin turned somewhat regained its position, rising in the evening on Friday, July 05 to a height of $ 11,100. Ethereum (ETH / USD), ripple (XRP / USD) and laytkoyn (LTC / USD), after the reference coin, showed similar rise and fall. The average weekly fluctuation range of coins from 17% to 23%.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. By the June employment data in the US market reacted with great attention. It is they who, in the opinion of many experts, may affect the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. According to forecasts, this could happen at the meeting of the Federal Reserve on 31 July. The low value of NFP would seriously increase the likelihood of rate cuts by 25 or 50 basis points. But, as mentioned above, the NFP rose by more than 3 times. It turns out that the US economy is not so critical. So why, then, to carry out mitigation policies and give cheap money?
The answer to this question, investors will try to hear from the speeches of Fed Chairman Dzh.Pauella 09, 10 and 11 July, as well as read in the minutes of the Fed lines Wednesday, July 10.
In the same environment, and held a meeting of the ECB. By the European regulator markets are also waiting for additional measures to stimulate the EU economy. Hour X is scheduled for July 25.
Whose side will swing the balance is not yet clear. Easing of monetary policy the Fed could weaken the dollar. A similar easing by the ECB will push down the euro. And this can happen at the same time. Just the mere observation that the yield of 30-year government bonds in Germany showed a decrease, up to a basis point coincided with the dynamics of the yield of 30-year US Treasury bonds.
Speaking of Germany. On Monday, 8 July the country will publish a series of economic data, including statistics on the trade balance for May. According to the forecasts, it can be positive, slightly strengthen position of the euro.
However, despite this, 60% of the experts believe that the pair has not yet reached the bottom of the local, and expect to see it in the zone 1.1100-1.1185. We agree with them trend indicators 90% and 80% oscillators H4 and D1. As for the remaining 40% of analysts, then, in their view, the pair could not break through the 1.1185 support zone and return the zone 1.1275-1.1320. The next goal - 1.1350 and 1.1400. It should be noted that during the transition from weekly to monthly forecast of the number of bulls supporters among experts increased from 40% to 65%. It supports them and 20% of the oscillators are now being oversold;
- GBP / USD. Despite the statements of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, most experts believe that no 1 August or even September 19 interest rates for the pound will not be reduced. Do not fade hopes for a "soft» Brexit. This has the British currency, though small, but support. Another positive factor for the pound is that now the currency reached a three-week low zone. This is why 60% of the experts expect to hang up a pair and its retention in the range of 1.1250-1.2750. Surrounding resistance levels 1.2570 and 1.2700.
The opposite view, supported by graphical analysis on the D1, hold 40% of analysts, according to which the pair should drop to lows in December 2018 - January 2019g.g. - in the zone 1.2405-1.2475.
As for the indicators, the vast majority of them on the H4 and D1 painted red. However, already about 15% of the oscillator signal of oversold;
- USD / JPY. Interest in the yen weakened against the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the attractiveness of riskier assets. But only 40% of analysts expects that the pair manages to overcome the resistance in the zone 108.50-108.80 and 109.00-109.60 climb to FL. The remaining 60% of the experts believe that the couple for some time will move in a sideways channel 107.55-108.50, attempting to break its bottom border, and, if successful, may fall to 106.75 horizon. Possible movement down signal pair and 15% oscillators H4 and D1, which are overbought;
- cryptocurrency. In general, the news background is positive for kriptorynka. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency continue to attract the largest and most experienced investors. For example, according to Bloomberg, the billionaire out of the "old guard" - 75-year-old Henry Kravis (Henry R. Kravis), too, could not resist and recently became an investor kriptovalyutnogo ParaFi Capital fund company. Interest in Bitcoin peaked over the past 17 months. Subject surpassed the number of requests to Google Donald Trump and Kim Kardashian, who previously held first and second places. Even the Chinese authorities changed their attitude towards cryptocurrency. In the report the country's official news agency "Xinhua" bitcoin called asset that has the characteristics of an ideal "safe haven" for investors.
Optimists forecast remains unchanged - $ 50-100 thousand for BTC coin in the next year and a half. Thus possible provaly- "correction", reaching 50 percent or more. In the meantime, 30% of the experts said about the possible fall of the pair BTC / USD to support $ 9,200, 40% expects to rise to a height of $ 14,000, and 30% say the lateral movement in the channel $ 9,725-12,200.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.