First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. The vast majority of analysts (75%), supported by 100% of trend indicators and oscillators 90%, said last week that if the couple overcome the support level 1.1200, it will be able to continue the downward movement. The immediate objective - recorded March 7 at least 2018-19g.g. 1.1175. At the same graphical analysis on the D1 argued that the support to overcome this couple is not able to return to the horizon and 1.1340.
So, in fact, it happened. However, the amplitude of oscillation was less than expected: week low was recorded at the level of 1.1183, while the maximum - 1.1254. As a result, the pair showed a classic sideways. Traders ignored even positive for the dollar report on the US labor market, released on Friday, April 5, and the pair completed the work week at 1.1215;
- GBP / USD. The behavior of the pair is still dependent on the news on the progress of political and economic operation called Brexit. News from the "battlefield" - UK Parliament - first pound moved up as Theresa May has promised to conduct successful negotiations with opposition leaders. Investors have begun to actively buy the pound, and he, as predicted graphical analysis, quickly reached the center of a five-week side corridor 1.2960-1.3350 at 1.3150.
But the first round of talks ended in failure, and investment funds started to close positions on the pound. In parallel, a negative background complement and news from the European Parliament, who mockingly rubbing his hands, watching the torn British colleagues. As a result of this trend for the pair was changed every two days and experienced a number of ups and downs, she put an end to almost the same place, and a week ago - at the level of 1.3035;
- USD / JPY. Recall that at the beginning of the week the pair was almost in the center of the channel 109.70-112.15. And the question was, where it will move - up or down. Despite the fact that for its growth have voted only 35% of the experts, the application of Donald Trump on the successful course of trade negotiations, the US and China and the growth of the US stock market moved up a couple. Reaching on Friday April 5 high of 111.80, after a slight pullback pair completed the five-day 10 points lower;
- cryptocurrency. Our forecast for last week was that Bitcoin will be able to overcome the resistance of $ 4,200 and a foothold in the range of $ 4,200-4,280. But on Tuesday, April 2 reference cryptocurrency made a sudden leap and soaring by 14.4%, broke through the level of $ 5,000. This movement was the strongest jump since the boom end of 2017.
Traders are wondering what's behind this surge, there were a variety of versions. One of the most likely can be considered that, in an interview with Reuters announced the head of the BCB Group Oliver von Landsberg Sadie. He said that the jump in prices Bitcoin was caused by only one investor, distributed applications for BTC to purchase $ 100 million for the three major exchanges - Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp. The total volume of transactions then was around 20.000 BTC, and the total capitalization of the crypto-market exceeded $ 170 billion.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. On Wednesday April 10th we are waiting for the next ECB decision on interest rates. Most likely, it will remain unchanged. But it became known that the European regulator is actively discussing options for a more aggressive stimulus. This can be a reduction of interest rates, and an increase in the program of quantitative easing, QE. These news have increased interest of investors in the shares of European companies and interest in the European currency to fall. Also on Wednesday, it will be published and the minutes of the meeting the US Federal Reserve Committee, which should shed light on further monetary policy of the American regulator.
In the near future the most powerful factors putting pressure on the euro, of course, is already over the order overexposed mess with Brexit. Perhaps this is why 60% of experts, supported by 100% of indicators and oscillators 80% on the D1, voted in favor of a further decrease in pair. The immediate objective - at least 7 March 2019. 1.1175, the next support was recorded in the summer of 2017. and is 60 points lower.
40% of the analysts gave preference to the bulls. Especially as oscillators for 20% D1 to provide signals on oversold. In their view, rebounding from support in the area of 1.1200, the pair will go up to resistance 1.1255 and in case of a breakthrough, will move to a height of 1.1300. Next resistance 1.1345;
- GBP / USD. I wonder if most experts believe that Brexit will continue to have a negative impact on the euro, the pound relative to the opposite opinion. 65% of analysts expect the coming week to strengthen the British currency. Their forecast is based on the fact that an extraordinary meeting of the European Council of 10 April Brexit support the extension of the procedure for the long term and that the output of the UK from the EU without a deal on April 12 will not take place. This forecast is solidary and graphical analysis on D1, indicating the growth zone to the first pair 1.3120, and finally to 1.3200 and 1.3265 resistances.
Fall pair analysts expect 35% and 90% indicators. At the same time 10% of the oscillators already signal the oversold, suggesting traders doubts about the future of this pair. Support at 1.2975, 1.2900 and 1.2830;
- USD / JPY. Over the past two weeks, the pair has gone from the bottom of the medium-term channel 109.70-112.15 almost to its upper boundary, ending the week at 111.70. And 85% of the experts believe that it is sure to test the 112.15 resistance. But it is believed that the couple will be able to go even higher and reach the level of 113.00, a total of 35%. So the probability that the steam will not exceed the upper limit of this channel is quite large. With this agreement, and 25% of the oscillators on the D1, already in the overbought zone. The main support - Pivot Point Channel 110.80;
- cryptocurrency. Unexpected jump Bitcoin has generated a wave of rumors and all sorts of events. For example, rose from obscurity mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto Bitcoin. He re-activate your account at Bitcointalk, lie dormant for many years. Over the past 10 years, the identity of Satoshi and has not been disclosed, although there are various assumptions, someone may be hiding under this mask. For example, a group of hackers, broke several large crypto-exchanges, believes that this is an American entrepreneur, engineer and inventor Elon Musk. According to them, the largest transaction cryptocurrency (and possibly the last $ 100 million) were carried out from the area of Bel Air in Los Angeles. And it was there for many years and is home to the legendary founder of SpaceX and Tesla.
As for the forecast, that 70% of analysts believe that the main fluctuations BTC / USD pair next week will be in the range of $ 5,000-5,500. However, the remaining 30% are confident that the one-time purchase bitcoins one investor, even at $ 100 million, is not sufficient reason to start a sustainable uptrend. And so the couple have many chances to go down below the horizon $ 4,800. Basically the same level of resistance in this case can be considered as the horizon $ 5,100.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.