First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. The whole week has not brought any surprises. Nobody expected lift interest rates at this meeting of the Fed, but investors worried about the Fed's comments on the management plans for 2019. And here their misgivings about the "dovish" comments were fully justified. Rather than specific promises controller spoke about the fact that a decision on a further increase in rates should take into account global economic factors, and to be extremely prudent. Such uncertainty caused sharp dollar sales, whereby the pair flew to the upper border medium side channel 1.1300-1.1500. However, then the situation calmed down and the couple turned to the south.
Another anticipated event was the publication of US labor market data on Friday 1 February. Statistics proved to be extremely positive indeed. Thus, the NFP has grown in comparison with the previous month by 37% (from 222K to 304K), and the ISM business activity index rose from 54.3 to 56.6. But this is again not a surprise due to the economic adviser Larry Kudlou Trump, who, as we mentioned in the previous review, the "leaked" the information long before the official publication. As a result, market reaction was limited to minor fluctuations within 40 points, and the pair has completed five days at 1.1455;
- GBP / USD. The next session of the Parliament of Great Britain for Brexit no clarity in the process of divorce with the European Union is not added. As a result, in the first half of the week pound I lost about 160 points, and then moved sideways, making fluctuations in the range 1.3050-1.3150, and completed week session at 1.3075;
- USD / JPY. Like the rest of the dollar pairs, USD / JPY has responded to comments the Fed falling US currency to the level of 108.50. But then, taking advantage of the positive dynamics of the labor market in the US, the dollar has won back losses, and by the end of the week the pair is back to where it started, - the level of 109.50;
- cryptocurrency. In the last forecast, it was noted that the main coins are in a sideways trend, constantly experiencing the pressure from the bears. 70% of experts supported scenario in which bitcoin had to yield to such pressure and gradually fall to 2018 lows. The past week has confirmed the correctness of such expectations. On Tuesday, February 29 reference cryptocurrency fixed local minimum at $ 3,425, followed by a rebound, and the pair met in February in the area of $ 3,500. As for capitalization kriptorynka as a whole, this week it is "shrunk" by 5.5%, falling to $ 113.6 billion.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. On the dollar side now plays hoped to conclude trade deals with China. January 31 at Washington ended another round of talks on this subject. And analysts say progress in the negotiation process cost both sides a lot of effort. US negotiators have demonstrated a clear desire to succeed as president of the Trump are now in great need of positive. However, accusations of industrial espionage, put forward by the Americans against Huawei Technologies Co, somewhat overshadowed optimistic picture drawn by the parties. The next round of talks to be held in Beijing in mid-February.
Counterweight to successful negotiations, as mentioned above, was made by the US Federal Reserve, doubted the necessity of the next interest rate increase. And if in the medium term, 60% of analysts still expect a stronger dollar, then the nearest week, the majority (70%) fell on the euro side. According to them, supported by about 80% oscillators and trend indicators to D1, the pair EUR / USD again try to break through the upper boundary of the side channel medium and fixed in 1.1300-1.1500 1.1500-1.1570 zone. The next goal - the height of 1.1625.
Alternative scenario supported by 30% of experts, graphical analysis at H4 and about 20% of the oscillators, the feed signals of overbought. In this case, the pair, and not being able to break through the key level of 1.1500, some time will be located in a side corridor 1.1400-1.1500. And with the appearance of positive news for the dollar, will attempt to reach the 1.1300 support on the horizon;
- GBP / USD. On Thursday 7 February we expect the Bank of England decision on interest rates, which are likely to remain unchanged at 0.75%. Much more investors worried about the situation with Brexit, and here it is again, the clarity and no. Moreover, again started to increase probability of the UK from the EU without any agreement. That is why the 65% reduction predicted analysts first pair to 1.2930 level, and then another 100 points below.
With regard to the indicators on the H4 about 40% of them are red, 40% - in the green and 20% - in a neutral gray. However, on the D1 green color dominates: 60% against 30% red and 10% gray. Nearest resistance - 1.3215, 1.3250 and then 1.3300;
- USD / JPY. From this pair in the near future we can expect some surprises, and the reason is the eastern New Year. Traditionally, this time not only summarize the financial results, but also action by the Bank of Japan, which is already several years in a row at this point starts to buy and sell large amounts of currency. Such intervention may cause surges in the rate of several hundred points, and currently most analysts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, expects first drop pairs to 108.00-108.55 zone, and then it returns to the horizontal 110.00. However, about 60% of the experts believe that the pair did not stop there, and within a month can reach resistance at 111.70;
- cryptocurrency. Experts and investors are now can be divided into two groups. The first believes that the current lull - this is the calm before the storm. The second - that it is the calm before the calm ... even more. On the side of the latter was also the head of kriptobirzhi CoinList Andy Bromberg, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance, in 2019, the market situation will be calm, because all the necessary tools have already been created, and the company will focus its attention not on speculation but on innovation and its development products.
This scenario is evidenced by the report of Circle Research, according to which in spite of the fact that the volume of direct investments in the digital currency for the year decreased by 8.5 times, investments in blokcheyn companies, by contrast, rose by 3 times and exceeded $ 5 billion.
As for the forecast for the next few weeks, then 70% of the experts still believe that bitcoin is expected to decline to lows of 2018. in the area of $ 3,200-3,250, and then rush to the level of support at $ 2,400. The remaining 30% of analysts do not rule out short-term growth of BTC / USD pair to the zone of $ 3,700-3,850, and possibly even higher - up to a height of 4,215.
Roman Butko, NordFX