First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. As expected, the past week was full of multidirectional economic news, which caused the rise, the fall of the pair. Recall that 45% of experts, based on the problems in US-China negotiations and contradictions between the US president and the head of the Fed, predicted further weakening of the dollar and the growth of the pair to a height of 1.1750. As a result, the pair reached a high of 1.1735.
Weak data from the euro zone supported the 35% of the analysts who talked about the strengthening of the dollar. As a result, were completely right 25% of the experts, who have not been able to determine the direction of the main trend, since, after hesitating for a week, the couple eventually returned to the values of a week ago and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.1600.
If we look at the graphs and D1 W1, clearly shows that after August peak and fall to the level of 1.1300 couple again entered the side passage 1.1575-1.1750, wherein moving the entire mid summer;
- GBP / USD. Problems associated with Brexit, continue to deter foreign investors. Published on Thursday, August 30 data suggest that they continue to actively get rid of British assets. Sale of government bonds reached their highest volume since 1982. - £ 17.2 billion, but, despite this, the pound managed to not only hold the position, but even play the dollar nearly 200 points after Wednesday negotiator from the EU Michel Barnier declared that he was ready to make the British unique selling proposition.. However, Barnier then played back a little, saying that does not exclude the option of hard Brexit, bringing the pair met the end of the weekly session at around 1.2960;
- USD / JPY. Recall that most of the experts (65%) forecast growth of pair, indicating as the target level of 112.00. To limit the increase and reverse the trend could overbought, which signaled already 20% of the oscillators. As the nearest support level 110.75 called.
In reality, the pair rose to a height of 111.82 and then fell to 110.70 horizon, so that the aforementioned objectives can be considered reasonably accurate. The final chord of the steam supplied to the zone 111.10, which can be considered Pivot Point last six weeks;
- cryptocurrency. Kriptorynok successfully gone through the information that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejected the US next batch of applications for the launch of exchange-traded funds focused on Bitcoin (Bitcoin-ETF). Optimism added he hoped for revision of these applications, as well as a message stating that in Yahoo Finance the opportunity to trade with Bitcoin, and laytkoynom Ethereum.
As bullish targets for couples BTC / USD experts called the capture of height $ 6,850 and then $ 7,760. On a wave of positive news, the pair broke through the resistance easily $ 6,850, but $ 7,130 at the height of the bulls run out of power, and she returned to the zone of resistance, turning it into a support zone. However, by the end of the week the pair managed to rise again above $ 7,000.
As for the main altkoinov, they repeated the dynamics of basic schedules cryptocurrency, but to fix a small increase could only laytkoyn (LTH), which added about 9%. But Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) after rising in the middle of the week returned to the initial values.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. The main trends of the coming week can be defined as: a slight increase in couples in its first half and fall to the end of the five-day week.
15% oscillators H4 indicate pereprodannost pair. In addition, on Tuesday, September 4th the market is expected to yield negative on business activity in the US data, which may slightly weaken the dollar and allow the pair to rise to 1.1700-1.1750 area. Next resistance at 1.1800.
However, the majority (60%) of experts expect stronger dollar. This should contribute to the output of a series of labor market data, including data from ADP on Thursday and the NFP figures on Friday, which is expected to become a strong support for the dollar, resulting in a pair may be close to the lows of mid-August in the area of 1.1300. The nearest support - in the zone 1.1500-1.1525. With this development and agree graphical analysis on H4 and D1.
It should be noted that in the medium-term positive trend in GDP growth and a strong labor market factors are powerful enough for the Fed to tighten monetary policy and, as a consequence, the further strengthening of the US currency;
- GBP / USD. Views of the majority of analysts (60%) turned to the north. They remember and a unique proposal by Michel Barnier, and that the index of business activity in the UK services can show significant growth up to August - from 53.5 to 54.7, that will be a serious stimulus bullish for the pound. As a result, correction can proceed, and steam rises in zone 1.3140-1.3170. The green colored and more than 80% oscillators D1.
An alternative view is held by graphical analysis on D1 and 40% of the experts are confident that the problem Brexit outweigh any positive economic data. And so the pair will soon return to the downward trend. Immediate support at 1.2800 area, the main goal - 1.2660;
- USD / JPY. Graphical analysis D1 movement draws in the side channel with a sufficiently narrow range of 110.00-111.45. With such a scenario, according to more than 55% of the experts and oscillators that are about equally dyed in green, red and neutral gray color. Reasons for this prediction are the same. On the one hand, low inflation, hindering the growth of Japan's GDP, and the success of the US economy, and on the other - the role of the yen as a safe haven in the US-China wars and scandals associated with the presidential elections in the United States, Donald Trump.
In the case of a pair of output beyond the said corridor, the following supports are located at levels 109.30 and 108.65, and the drag - 112.15 and 113.15;
- cryptocurrency. Bear targets for couples BTC / USD are the same - the breakdown of support for $ 6,230, then $ 6,000, and the descent to a minimum $ 5,760. However, unless there is nothing extraordinary, fall below the level of profitability of mining in the area of $ 6,000-6,230 now seems almost impossible.
From the point of view of most experts, the more likely the pair to $ 7,760, then the correction, and a new leap up - now to a maximum of July 25 - the height of $ 8,500.
Roman Butko, NordFX