First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. Olden Trump decided to once again shake up the market. Putting aside for the Chinese problem, he turned his attention toward Mexico. If you can not build a wall on the border with it in order to stop the illegal flow will punish Mexico dollar, the US President decided raised and duties on goods of Mexican production. Further - more, in July rate will be raised to 10% in August - up to 15% in September - up to 20%, and in October - 25%.
It is possible that such a show of force had a dual purpose - apart from Mexico punishment, even scare Beijing: they say, look, what we do with the unruly!
Of course, China - not Mexico, with it is much more difficult, but that as it may, the dollar continued to rise. In his favor was played and the results of elections to the European Parliament. As a result, on Thursday, the pair recorded a local minimum at the level of 1.1115 on May 30 and completed in May near the monthly Pivot Point - at the level of 1.1167. Thus, in the first five months, the euro weakened against the dollar by about 350 points.
It is appropriate to recall that a year ago at the same time in just six weeks, the European currency lost 2.5 times more - about 900 points! So that complaints and traders and brokers to reduce volatility are without reason.
- GBP / USD. Following a statement by Prime Minister Theresa May and the resignation of the success of the elections to the European Parliament supporters Brexit pound remains under pressure. Recall that 65% of experts, supported by 90% of oscillators and trend indicators, voted in favor of a further drop in the pair. That's what happened. The pair not only gone down, but also updated the lows of spring 2019, reaching a bottom at 1.2557 horizon, followed by a rebound, and the final chord sounded at the level of 1.2630.;
- USD / JPY. Growth tension entails growth antiriskovyh moods. A blow that caused Trump to Mexico, has fallen off almost all tradable assets in the first place, the price of oil. And investors have once again turned their sights on a safe harbor under the name of the Japanese yen, where you can ride out the economic storm of the next.
As a result, in contrast to the euro and the pound that fell against the dollar, the yen, on the contrary, strengthened, reaching on Friday the level of 108.30 on May 31, where she met the summer, fully confirming the forecast, which gave 75% of analysts, 85% of the oscillators, and 100% trend indicators;
- cryptocurrency. Third consecutive week bitcoin persistently approaching the coveted $ 10,000, moving on a "step forward, half a step back." So, fighting off competition from the horizon $ 7,880, in the late evening of Sunday May 26 a couple of BTC / USD has gone up sharply and reached on Monday at $ 8,955. This was followed by a 5.5% correction, and another leap up, as a result of which it was noted at the height of $ 9,100. However, to gain a foothold above $ 9,000 it was not possible, the "bulls" have started to take profits, and bitcoin farewell to spring at $ 8,510, rising for the last three months more than 120%.
As for couples ETH / USD, LTC / USD and XRP / USD, and the Ethereum and laytkoyn and Ripley, after rising following the reference cryptocurrency returned behind her at the end of the working week to the values of the middle of May.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. In addition to the US President Trump, the main drivers of this pair is the US Federal Reserve and the ECB. Recall that the current head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi is leaving his post on 31 October. The main contender for his seat is now Y.Vaydman which, being a strong supporter of the euro, has strongly advocated the increase of interest rates. Representatives of the Federal Reserve, by contrast, have hinted at a possible reduction in the dollar rate due to a possible deceleration of the US GDP. This situation, like, should play in favor of the euro. However, according to Bloomberg, the ECB will raise rates no earlier than April 2020., And during this time a lot can still change. Especially because the political and economic problems of the euro area can already be observed.
Proceeding from the above, 60% of the experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote for the drop pairs to support 1.0975. The next goal is 100 points lower.
Indicators are also, for the most part, looking to the south - 50% of them are red, 25% - in the green and 25% - in a neutral gray.
Supporters of the bulls at the moment are in the minority. In their view, the pair could not break through the support zone of 1.1100 and the rebound can reach tier 1.1265-1.1325.
Теперь о событиях предстоящей недели, на которые стоит обратить внимание. В понедельник, 03 июня, нас ждет публикация индексов деловой активности Еврозоны, США и Китая, а во вторник – данных по инфляции и безработице в Еврозоне. Четверг, 06 июня, также будет насыщен новостями из Европы. Это и данные по ВВП, и решение ЕЦБ по процентной ставке, и – самое главное – пресс-конференция ЕЦБ по кредитно-денежной политике. И, наконец, как обычно, в первую пятницу месяца нас ждет публикация статистики по рынку труда в США. Эксперты ожидают, что NFP может упасть примерно на 30% (с 263К до 190К), что на какое-то время ослабит доллар;
- GBP / USD. The main contender for the post of British prime minister today is the former Mayor of London and the Minister of Foreign Affairs Boris Johnson. And it's bad for the pound, because Johnson is a proponent of "hard» Brexit and out of the EU without agreement. Such an outcome scares the market, and today 65% of experts, supported by 90% of oscillators and trend indicators 100% on the D1, expect a further weakening of the British currency pairs and reduce first to the support of 1.2555, and then to the lows of 2018 - 1.2475 and 1.2405.
The remaining 35% of analysts believe that the behavior of couples in the last two weeks is a harbinger of strong correction, as a result of which it can return to a height of 1.2745, or even reach the resistance 1.2825.
A compromise offers graphical analysis on D1. According to his testimony steam may initially rise to the level of 1.2825, and then turned and find the bottom in the zone 1.2405-1.2475;
- USD / JPY. Despite the fact that 100% of trend indicators and oscillators 85% on H4 and D1 painted red, the situation is not as clear - 15% of the oscillators already served signals oversold. Support levels - 107.75 and 107.00, resistance levels - 109.15, 109.65, 110.35 and 110.65.
Among the voices of experts were divided as follows: 50% - on the side of the bears, 25% - on the side of the bulls, and 25% froze in confusion in the middle. Whose position would be the most correct, will depend on the stock markets, which the pair has a strong correlation, and, as usual, from tweets Trump, dedicated, first and foremost, the course of the US-China trade war. In this case, the transition to the medium-term forecast of the situation is changing radically - is already 75% give the palm to the dollar;
- cryptocurrency. Six years ago, in 2013, it published an unusual message from "Luke Magnotty of the Future", which gave the forecast prices Bitcoin, which was surprisingly accurate. "On average, every year Bitcoins costs increased by about 10 times - wrote Magnotta. - He grew from $ 0.1 in 2010 to $ 1 in 2011, to $ 10 in 2012 to $ 100 in 2013. Further there will be a slowdown, and the price will increase by 10 times every two years - Bitcoin will grow to $ 1,000 in 2015 to $ 10,000 in 2017 to $ 100,000 in 2019 and $ 1,000,000 in 2021 ".
Until the end of 2019 there are still seven months. Or seven? In any case, to achieve this goal Magnottoy this cryptocurrency must demonstrate a fantastic growth.
As for a short-term forecast, the renowned analyst Peter Brandt expressed the opinion that, driven by FOMO (syndrome of lost profits) of a set of traders, the price of Bitcoin is soon overcome the mark of $ 10,000. At the same time, Brandt stressed that not far off fairly deep correction - bulls will want to lock in profits, and this will stop the sale of buyers trying to "jump on the last train."
Unlike Brandt, most analysts (70%) confronts BTC / USD pair more modest goal - to consolidate above $ 9,000. The remaining 30% believe that the pair will take a breather and will move in a sideways channel $ 7,500-8,500.
In concluding this forecast, it should be noted that the time of his writing - Friday, 24:00 GMT. And it is not excluded that in the coming weekend, as has happened more than once, the bulls once again moved up quotes Bitcoin.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.