First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. "Dovish" ECB President Mario Draghi's rhetoric during his speech on Thursday, January 24 at any time upset the pair to the lower boundary of the medium-term side channel 1.1300-1.1500. However, the joy was short-lived bears - said at the level of 1.1289, the pair reversed and by Friday evening returned to the center line of the channel - in the area of 1.1400. Which is understandable - on closer inspection I did not say anything special about Draghi. Noting a strengthening labor market and reduce the risks for the euro area economy, the ECB head said that to carry out a new QE is now does not make sense. At the same time frame for first raising the interest rate on euro remain unchanged.
As for the dollar, the situation is reversed. Last published in The Wall Street Journal has strengthened investors in the opinion that the US Federal Reserve will soon finalize the monetary tightening cycle, and it will happen sooner than analysts expected;
- GBP / USD. Pound is growing along with the hope of a "soft" option Brexit. Rumors to that effect fueled an article in the British tabloid The Sun with unconfirmed (!) Information that the Democratic Unionist Party can support the original version of the transaction Theresa May, when it will be amended by special conditions for Ireland. Also steadily and rumors about a possible long delay deal with the EU on the basis of Article 50. As far as they are justified, will vote in the British Parliament on Tuesday 29 January. In the meantime, the pound shows steady gains against all major currencies, including the euro, the yen and the dollar. Breaking horizons 1.3000 and 1.3100 by the end of Friday, January 25 GBP / USD pair reached a height of 1.3200, gaining for a week more than 300 points;
- USD / JPY. Despite the fact that the risk appetite of investors continues to grow, the Japanese currency has stopped falling. The pair moved to the lateral movement in a narrow range 109.14-110.00 and completed the week-long session is almost in the middle of the corridor - in the area of 109.50;
- cryptocurrency. A lull in the market continues, capitalization does not increase, but the main courses coins demonstrate sideways. It could not affect any criticism from analysts JP Morgan, no sharply negative statements of a number of participants of the World Economic Forum in Davos, was finally buried bitcoin, no review of the Chicago Stock Exchange CBOE applications to run Bitcoin-ETF. BTC / USD The pair has not been able to get beyond the corridor $ 3,570-3.800. Attempts to break it both upwards and downwards, run failures. In the first case, the pair was able to reach a height of 3,870 in the second - down to the horizon 3,460, but eventually returned to the center of the corridor at around $ 3,580-3,675.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. Courses dollar pair in the near future, of course, affect the news of trade negotiations with China, which will be held January 30-31 in Washington, DC, and in which there are many chances of success. In addition, February 1 will be the statistics on the US labor market. However, an economic adviser Larry Kudlou Trump has "leaked" information that indicators such as the NFP, greatly increase given the very small number of applications for unemployment benefits.
In addition, data on euro area GDP will be published on Thursday 31 January, which is likely to prove disappointing.
All this may strengthen the American currency with which 60% of the experts agree, waiting for the fall pair EUR / USD initially to the lower limit of 1.1300 channel medium, and then still lower - to supports 1.1270 and 1.1215.
On the other hand, as has been said, the market strengthened expectations that the tightening of US monetary policy will be phased out. That is why the January 30 special attention should be paid not only to the decision of the Federal Reserve's interest rate (in this time it is likely to remain at 2.5%), but on the comments Fed officials about the plans for 2019. And if the information on the number of future rate increases disappoint investors can be expected to decline in the dollar, which can grow into a long-term trend. In this case, according to 40% of the analysts, the EUR / USD in the near future can break through the upper boundary of the channel to reach the mark 1.1500 and 1.1580.
And of course, we must not forget about the vote in the British Parliament on Brexit;
- GBP / USD. So, on Tuesday, January 29, Prime Minister Theresa May is to announce to the British Parliament a backup plan for withdrawal from the EU. Some versions of this bill have already been announced in the first part of this forecast. The Labor opposition can not decide what to do, and it reduces the possibility of a second referendum or new elections. And in The Telegraph discussed as many as five of the amendments that can be put to a vote.
How to vote in parliament, we learn only on Tuesday. As for our experts, their votes were distributed as follows: 50% expect falling of pair, 40% - of its growth, and 10% were undecided. Support at 1.3070, 1.2900, 1.2820, 1.2700 and 1.2660. Levels of resistance - 1.3250, 1.3300, 1.3360 and 1.3555;
- USD / JPY. In contrast to the British Parliament, from the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Japan January 28 expect surprises not necessary. Much more information from the US may affect the rate of the pair. This information concerning the increase in interest rates on the dollar, and the success or failure in the US-China talks on 30-31 January. If both sides reach a consensus, and it is quite probable, as very necessary Trump, US market share will go up. In this case, the rate may rise above the level of 110 yen per 1 dollar. And as the main target 70% analysts supported by graphical analysis on D1, indicate strong level 2017-18g.g. in the zone of 111.55.
An alternative view is held 30% of the experts and 15% oscillators D1, feeding signals about overbought. In the case of the downward movement, the support is located at depths 109.15,108.70 and 107.75.
- cryptocurrency. Sluggish reaction to the news that a year ago would have caused fluctuations of quotations in dozens or even hundreds of percent, says that the market of digital currency is increasingly beginning to resemble the Forex. This not only contributes to the "bucket of water" to cool the ardor of the most ardent crypto fans, but also increased attention on the part of regulators. At this time, the protection of investors attended the Bank of England, meeting cryptocurrency classified by dividing them into three categories and are subject to the applicable legal requirements.
We think that in the near future, expect the arrival of large institutional investors, which had hoped for their smaller counterparts, do not have to. The challenge to make a quick profit to the "whales" is not necessary, and they will wait until then, until the market situation has not completely cleared up, and the risks from such speculation does not descend to a minimum. And this expectation can take years and even decades.
While, as has been said, the main coins are in a sideways trend. However, it must be noted and persistent pressure from the bears. For example Pivot line around which oscillates BTC / USD pair for the last two weeks decreased by 20 points, ripple (XRP / USD) fell by about 5%, and Ethereum (ETH / USD) - 8%. Of course, for the crypto-pairs is a small thing, but perhaps a pointer to the direction of the future breakout.
The vast majority (70%) of experts believe that bitcoin finally give way to these pressures, and will fall to the lows of 2018 first. in the area of $ 3,200-3,250, and then rush to the level of support at $ 2,400.
The continuation of the sideways trend voted 10% of analysts and 20% rely on the pair and its return to the zone $ 3,850-4,215.
Roman Butko, NordFX