First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. First the good news, which pushed up the euro, as expected, became an extraordinary summit of European leaders Brexit. Its positive results have allowed a common European currency on Monday November 26 to grow to the level of 1.1383, after which the power over the market again took the dollar.
By Wednesday, the start was closer to the minimum in 2018 a couple of years and dropped to 1.1255, but then the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, speaking at the Economic Club of New York, suddenly announced that the interest rates on the dollar just below the neutral level!
Back in October, the same person said that the rate is quite far from this level, and, a month later, it was almost «zero» level at which the economy is not accelerating, not slowing down. Such speech a little alarmed by the market, resulting in the euro-bulls were again able to push the pair up - this time to a height of 1.1400. But then it came out not very rosy statistics for the euro area economy, and the pair went down again. As a result, the outcome of the week can be characterized by a short word «zero» - the pair has completed its almost the same place and started;
- GBP / USD. Vnutrinedelnye trend of this pair are similar to those that showed the pair EUR / USD. But distrust of the pound, caused by the fact that the British Parliament may not approve an agreement on Brexit, played a role. As a result, the finish couples was slightly lower than the start level and, if at the beginning of the week the pound stood at 1.2810, then finished it at the level of 1.2750;
- USD / JPY. About the future of this pair of expert opinion was divided almost equally. A slight advantage (55%) was on the side of the bears, but it becomes apparent that the victory at summarizing the week - albeit very small - the bulls have won. During the week-long session, the pair managed to rise by about 60 points, frozen at the level of 113.50;
- cryptocurrency. The outlook on the market was given a negative, and it paid off at 100% - more than 80% of all coins after Bitcoin, have gone into a deep negative. The intrigue was only how far have time to fall cryptocurrency reference to their companions this week.
Our forecast was that a couple of BTC / USD, with a high probability, breaks the level of $ 4,000. And she sank to a mark of $ 3,660, returning on Friday in the area $ 4,000. Ethereum (ETH / USD) was marked on the horizon $ 102.6. Laytkoyn (LTC / USD) on some stock exchanges fell to $ 24.2, and Ripple (XRP / USD) - below $ 0.33.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. If you look at the chart, we see that in November drew a pair of "pennant" with the pursuit of consolidation in the 1.1315-1.1350 area. As for its further movement, the majority of experts (60%) and more than 90% of the indicators on the N4 at D1 expect further strengthening of the dollar and the new test 2018 low. - 1.1215.
In addition to the G20 Summit, to the formation of trends can affect the next statement of the head of the Federal Reserve Dzh.Pauella on Wednesday, December 05 and Friday 07 December, as well as the publication at the end of next week on the US labor market data. According to forecasts, the NFP may fall by 15-20% compared with the previous value, which can slightly weaken the US currency. Here it should be noted that at the transition to the monthly forecast 60% analysts are already on the side of the bull, awaiting the return of vapors in zone 1.1400-1.1500;
- GBP / USD. Now the pair is close to the annual minimum area - 1.2670-1.2695, and graphical analysis on H4, supported by more than 90% of trend indicators and oscillators, it predicts their imminent breakdown and decline to 1.2600-1.2620 area.
But expert opinion is not so simple - on the side of the bears stands only 55%. And 45% believe that the pair will not be able to update the lows, and it will go to the north to the height of 1.2900;
- USD / JPY. It would not have wanted to give a clear prediction, but there is no any expressed preferences of the experts and the Japanese currency - exactly half of them voted for the pair, and exactly half - of its fall. Everyone is waiting for the outcome of G20 and forecasts are also quite ambiguous.
Properly behave and indicators, although most of them are colored green. As for the graphical analysis, it is first to rise to the level of 114.20-114.40 pair, and then drop it - first to the support of 113.00, and then - to 111.75.
In a situation of such uncertainty it is always useful to refer to a long-term forecast. Here, 65% of analysts, followed graphical analysis, expect yen strengthening and drop pairs to a mark 112.00;
- cryptocurrency. The situation with the forecasts of cryptocurrency complicated by the fact that their real value is practically impossible to estimate. They are virtual so that estimates can vary by tens, hundreds or even thousands of times. Focus on the costs of miners, too, especially not worth it, because they do not do any useful work and do not produce any material values and wealth. And just spend their time, money and energy.
Expert forecasts now look like this: 60% expect to continue Bitcoin fall to the level of $ 3,000, 30% - are hoping that he hold out in the range of $ 4,000-4,500, and 10% superoptimistov convince others that it is all the machinations of the big players, who by buying on cheap coin, will soon begin to push the market up.
However, the optimism quickly melts, if you listen to the words of the founder and CEO of Nvidia Jensen Huang. The head of the largest manufacturer of processors for mining admitted that they misjudged the prospects kriptorynka, and now his company relies on the GPU for computing with the help of artificial intelligence and the use of unmanned vehicles.
Roman Butko, NordFX