First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. As noted in the previous forecast, the euro has returned to within the four-month downtrend channel. And 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis, considered that in such a situation, the European currency will continue to lose ground, dropping to 2019 lows, the area - 1.1175-1.1185. Expectations of strong economic statistics from the United States throughout the week pushed the euro down, confirming the validity of this prediction. And by the middle of Friday April 26th the pair even exceeded the "plan", down to the level of 1.1110.
Published macro-economic indicators were actually quite positive. Orders for capital goods rose from 0.1% to 1.3% and the GDP compared to the previous quarter, added a full percentage point (3.2% compared with 2.2%). However, the market found that the objectives have been achieved. Followed by closing of positions before the weekend, and after a small correction the pair has set the final point at 1.1147;
- GBP / USD. The outlook on this pair also proved to be quite accurate. Recall that the vast majority of experts (75%) voted in favor of the fact that the pair manages to overcome the medium level of support in the area of 1.2975, and then rush to the zone 1.2770-1.2830.
That's what happened - on Tuesday 23 April the pair broke the support specified and sharply gone down. Week low was recorded at the level of 1.2865, and the pair completed a five-day period at the level of 1.2915;
- USD / JPY. Analysts about the behavior of this pair last week almost equally divided - one third voted for its growth, one-third of the fall, and a third for the continuation of the lateral movement. As sometimes happens, it is a "blurred", and the forecast was the most accurate. Initially, the pair moved in a very narrow sideways channel width of only 15 points. Then volatility gradually began to grow, and steam up to the level of 112.40, and then, probably due to a drop in a pair with Yuan (USD / CNY), and the dollar dipped against the Japanese Yen, feeling local bottom at 111.35. After that, the couple returned to the horizon 111.60, losing a week about 30 points;
- cryptocurrency. As already mentioned several times, the movement cryptocurrency largely motivated by the news background. In this case, 65% of experts believe that even if there is positive news, BTC / USD pair in the near future will not be able to break the resistance of $ 5,500. A case of deterioration of the news background, the bears will try to press the pair to the support of $ 4,600.
In general, the prognosis can be considered correct. In the middle of the week there were several attempts to gain a foothold above the upper limit specified level, and the couple for some time even held in a neighborhood of $ 5,650. However, once on Thursday, April 25 it became known that the Prosecutor's Office of the State of New York accused kriptovalyutnuyu exchange Bitfinex of concealing the disappearance of $ 850 million of corporate and client funds, quotes Bitcoin flew down. On some exchanges BTC price dropped to $ 4,600, and the most Bitfinex collapse failed to stop at around $ 5,065.
Exchange Guide denies any losses, saying that these funds are not lost and confiscated. And Exchange Commission is making every effort to return them and intends to defend his good name in court. Isolation of the criminal history have yet to learn. In the meantime, the pair quotes returned to the level of the beginning of the week - in the $ 5,370 area.
As for the main altkoinov, then, after the collapse, they, unlike Bitcoin and could not fully recover the lost ground. Ethereum (ETH / USD) lost for the week around 9.5%, laytkoyn (LTC / USD) fell by 11.0%, about the same (10.4%) lost weight and Ripple (XRP / USD).
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. The relatively good performance of the US economy and the growing concerns about the euro area economy and, in particular, Germany, forcing investors to look at the dollar as the protection of the global economic, and political risks. So on April 28, will be held early parliamentary elections in Spain, and a month later, heated issue Brexit, elections to the European Parliament. The ambiguity of the outcome of these events will certainly put pressure on the euro.
In the US, there is the market will look at the rhetoric of the Fed's regular meeting which will take place on May 1. The focus, of course, there is the question of a possible interest rate cut. Among the other events of the coming week it is necessary to note the publication on Monday, April 29 The US inflation report; Tuesday - Eurozone GDP data and the index of consumer prices (HICP) in Germany; and on Friday, May 03 - on the consumer market and the euro area data on the US labor market (including the NFP).
Last week the EUR / USD pair dropped to the 1.1110 level, which is not only a minimum of 2019., But also the lowest level since mid-2017. And 75% of analysts, supported by 90% on the D1 indicator is considered that the fall will not stop, and steam may first reach the bottom of the descending channel borders in the area of 1.1080, and then go away and even lower - in the zone 1.0970-1.1030.
The remaining 25% of analysts are inclined to believe that at some time the couple can stay in the range 1.1110-1.1250 with Pivot Point in the area of 1.1175. The same view is held by graphical analysis on H4 and 10% oscillators D1, feeding signals about oversold.
It should be noted that at the transition to the medium forecast number of Euro-bulls, assume that the pair will return to zone 1.1400-1.1600 is nearly 55%;
- GBP / USD. The pair broke the medium level of support in the area of 1.2975, and the vast majority of experts (90%), supported by 100% of oscillators and trend indicators on the D1, he believes that it is necessary once again will test at least April 25 at the level of 1.2865 and, if successful, will fall into the zone 1.2770-1.2830. Opposite view is held 10% analysts and graphical analysis on D1, specifying as the nearest target zone 1.2985-1.3015. Next resistance 1.3065.
Still 60% of the experts there is hope in the medium term to increase the Bank of England interest rates, and, as a consequence, the strengthening of the British currency. The next meeting of the regulator held on Thursday May 2. However, the probability of a rate hike as early as this week, is close to zero;
- USD / JPY. Clarity about the movement of this pair is still there, and experts' opinions were divided almost equally. A slight advantage (55%) on the side of the bulls, waiting for her return to the level of 112.00, and, possibly, to a maximum of April 24 at an altitude of 112.40.
With such a forecast disagree 45% of analysts and graphical analysis on the H4, who believe that the dollar will continue to fall first to the level of 111.35 and then to the level of 110.85;
- cryptocurrency. In a situation of uncertainty, experts were divided into three equal camps - bears (target for Bitcoin $ 4,800), bulls (target $ 5,700) and the supporters of the lateral trend (Pivot Point $ 5,300). At the same time 70% of respondents believe that the rise above $ 6,000 during May BTC / USD pair.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.