First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. What about for so long, analysts say it happened - on Wednesday, September 18 the US Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate at 0.25% - up to 2.0%. But because talking about it already for a long time, the market has long since fulfilled this scenario, and any "epochal" rate jumps have occurred. On the contrary, volatility has declined, and the couple moved to the lateral movement in the already familiar to traders corridor 1.1000-1.1075.
In previous forecasts, we've talked about this area Pivot Point last two months, which was formed as a result of prevailing market uncertainty. Last week was proof of that. So, on the one hand, the Fed's press conference leadership Wednesday smyagchitelnoy done without rhetoric, reinforcing the notion that further rate cuts this year will be no more. But the very next day Banks in Switzerland and England at its sessions also declined to easing policy, keeping its rates unchanged, and the Bank of Norway, and has raised its key interest rate at all. This only added to the uncertainty by making a pair of EUR / USD to move strongly to the east;
- GBP / USD. The pound continues to win back losses from standby unregulated Brexit, adding a relatively low 3 September 1.1958 already 5%. This week, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said the willingness to give up the idea of "reverse" on the Irish border, if the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson will come up with something new and viable. This prompted pound further upwards, resulting in the pair has reached tier 1.2440-1.2580, which is already moving in July and completed five days at 1.2470;
- USD / JPY. In the middle of last week, the pair has updated medium-high, reaching a height of 108.47. It happened against the decision of the Bank of Japan to maintain the target rate of return on 10-year government bonds in the zone zero. Also helped weaken the yen and the speech of the BOJ Kuroda, who said that the issue of further rate cuts are still relevant.
However, as usual, Trump's words made a greater impression on investors. And the US president at the time said that Washington has reached with Tokyo "original" trade agreement, under which the US promised not to raise tariffs or impose quotas on Japanese cars, and Tokyo for seven years resets duties on American wine.
Cars against wine - this transaction is clearly in favor of Japan. In addition, due to the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has increased the demand for protective assets, among which, of course, the yen. As a result, the pair worked about 100 points in the opposite direction, completing weekly session at around 107.55;
- cryptocurrency. Last week someone has pleased, and someone made a cold sweat because of the unexpected sharp fall in Bitcoin (BTC / USD) by 6%, and then - due to the equally sudden, for no apparent reason, his return growth. This decline has caused widespread closing of long positions - only one kriptobirzhe BitMEX them was closed for $ 150 million.
The most likely explanation for what happened - the game of big business against small traders, disappointed by the lack of fast takeoff Bitcoin to cosmic heights. In this case, the big players, not wanting to cause panic and collapse of quotations, do not allow the pair to drop below acceptable levels, keeping it comfortable for themselves range from Pivot Point $ 10,000.
Interestingly, the main altkoyny seems to have started to live an independent life, only partly copying the movement of the reference cryptocurrency. Thus, the Ethereum (ETH / USD) over the past three weeks has risen in price by 35%, laytkoyn (LTC / USD) - 30%, and the ripple in just 4 days (from 14 to 18 September) managed skaknut up to 27%. And this despite the fact that the maximum fluctuation Bitcoin does not exceed 9% this month.
The most logical, in our opinion, the explanation lies in the subtleties altkoynov market. Unlike Bitcoin, it is much easier to manipulate the market value, even with much less the amounts that can not attract speculators, eager to get rich quick.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. Unable to overcome the strong resistance level of 98.23, USDX Dollar Index is moving in a sideways channel. Also moves to the east and the pair EUR / USD. Most likely, these bearish factors such as quantitative easing (QE) in Europe and unregulated Brexit, already priced in by the market. Objectively, the US economy is stronger than Europe. But the strengthening of the dollar is constantly impeded trade wars, started by President Trump. And now added to them and waiting for a full hot war in the Middle East due to drone attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the organization which accuse Iran. It is clear that the United States is required to intervene in the conflict.
All this leads to the closing of short positions on EUR / USD, and it is possible that the couple and not be able to update the September low at 1.0925. With such a scenario, experts agree half expecting its growth to a height of 1.1100. The next target - 1.1160. 20% of analysts believe that the pair still goes down to around 1.0800. And 30%, supported on oscillators D1, expect continued sideways;
- GBP / USD. According to calculations by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, messy Brexit deduct from Eurozone GDP by 0.5 percentage points, while the GDP of Albion - as much as 2 percentage points (!). This fall, the OECD experts, will put on the brink of the collapse of the Eurozone and Britain will plunge into the deepest recession. In response to these forecasts, the markets, as well as ordinary consumers, trying to get rid of the pounds, bringing the currency close to 2016 lows.
If you look at the chart, it is clear that three years ago, rebounding from the area 1.1945-1.1985, the pair went up and, after 2400 points, reached in January 2018, the height of 1.4345. This "historical" experience prompts some investors now buy a pound, hoping that the situation will Brexit somehow resolved and the Bank of England, while fighting inflation, will raise interest rates.
Among analysts the number of supporters of this development is 40% today. We agree with prognosis and 80% oscillators D1. If bovine script is implemented, the first rise in the vapor zone of 1.2575-1.2645 and then by 100 points higher. The most courageous forecasts indicate growth of the pair to the end of the year to the level of 1.3100.
However, at this point the question Brexit remains open and therefore most analysts (60%), supported by 70% oscillators H4 and graphical analysis on D1, retain pessimistic, waiting for a couple fall again tries to get close to an absolute minimum during the last 228 (!) years, when the October 7, 2016 for the pound was given a little more than 1.19 dollars (in 1791. GBP / USD pair was at around 4.55). The next support zone - 1.2385-1.2400, 1.2280-1.2300, 1.2065-1.2200, 1.1955-1.2015;
- USD / JPY. For the reasons described above, the majority of experts (65%) supported the bears, having voted for the dollar's decline and the return of the pair in the 105.75-106.75 zone. You agree to such a scenario and 85% for H4 indicators. However, 15% of the oscillator signals supplied already oversold.
35% of analysts believe the strengthening of the yen a temporary phenomenon, and therefore predict a rise in the pair to the height of 109.00.
As for the graphical analysis, it draws in the first phase growth to the horizon pair 108.50 and then its fall to the level of 106.75. The following levels of support - 105.75 and 105.00. The purpose of the bears - at least at the level of 104.45 08/26/2019;
- cryptocurrency. Despite continuous assurances "guru" of the imminent takeoff kriptorynka Bitcoin to 50, 100 or 200 thousand dollars, the price is still in the consolidation area, moving along the horizon $ 10,000. Moreover, the volatility of the BTC / USD pair is reduced day by day. And it seems that this situation is quite satisfied with the major players, to build this low "fence" and make money on volume of transactions, rather than the mad race quotes.
Of course, the breakthrough could happen at any moment. However, when this will happen and in what direction the price will go is uncertain in the current situation. We only note that at the moment 65% of the experts surveyed remain "bullish optimism", while 35% - expect decrease in pair to around $ 8,000.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.