First, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. Two weeks ago, most experts predicted a rebound pair up. The purpose of the bulls was a return to the level of 1.1350, and then increase to zone 1.1420-1.1450. This forecast came true if not 100%, then 99% - has recorded a couple of local maximum at a height of 1.1411 on June 25. Followed by a slight rebound and, pending the outcome of negotiations in the framework of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, the pair moved sideways in a narrow channel 1.1345-1.1390, completing the work week at around 1.1370;
- GBP / USD. After the jump, 250 points in mid-June, the British currency calmed down, and the last week was held for her relatively quiet. The couple returned to the corridor 1.2650-1.2765 and finished near the strong support zone / 1.2700 resistance;
- USD / JPY. Tightened to the monthly Pivot Point and currency of the host country of G20 - Japan. On the eve of US President's meeting Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the meeting the leaders of the "Big Twenty" demand for safe-haven currency fell slightly, and pushed off from the low of the last 5.5 months at the level of 106.77, the pair climbed to around 107.90 yen = US $ 1 ;
- cryptocurrency. "Bitcoin does not stop!" - cry alone. "Even as the stop" - grin others. One thing is clear: those who first boarded a train leaving in the right direction, and came down on the right stop, can get a huge profit. Those who jumped into the last car of the train, or even confused, get huge losses.
Only in the last three weeks bitcoin increased from $ 7,500 to $ 13.765, which is more than 80%. Then all fell to $ 10.390, usohnuv by 25% in two days. Another day - and re-growth of 15% ...
Interestingly, the PTS at the time of incidence by 25%, capitalization kriptorynka decreased by only 13% (from $ 367.42 to $ 318.61 billion billion). This suggests that many investors are reluctant to take profits and get rid of their bitcoins, and expected to continue its growth.
However analysts warn that we should not wait for the same lifting of altkoynov. This is clearly seen even in the graphs masthead cryptocurrency such as, for example, laytkoyn (LTC / USD) or ripple (XRP / USD). But Ethereum (ETH / USD) quite closely follows the dynamics of the reference coin.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. Markets do not expect the work of the G20 summit as a breakthrough solutions. Much more interest is bilateral talks the leaders of the most powerful economies in the world in the margins of the forum, and, above all, the negotiations of China leader Xi Jinping and US President Trump on Saturday June 29th. Investors hope to reduce the glow in the commercial confrontation between these countries, and if it happens, in Monday trading on the foreign exchange market can be opened gapped.
However, many analysts and the event looks quite calm and believe that global truce in this war will not. Tariffs affected 10,000 categories of goods from China, and one of the conditions pronounced by Beijing, is the US rejection of all existing taxes. The probability that Trump will take this step, is close to zero. Ban on cooperation with the Chinese company Huawei is also unlikely to be removed. Hand warmly poulybatsya each other, shrug their hands, but it is unlikely any of them will go to make serious concessions. This zero (or minimal) outcome of the meeting will allow Trump, on the eve of the US presidential election, to announce his latest "victory", and China - to gain time.
In this situation, an important figure in the "chess game" will be the US Federal Reserve, which, against the background of falling global stock markets, will have to still proceed with the mitigation of its monetary policy, leading to a weakening US currency.
To reduce the interest rate the Fed can push and weak US economic data, which will be released next week. Indicators of business activity ISM index will be announced on July 01, 03 and the data from the labor market (including the NFP) traditionally will be released on the first Friday of the month - July 5.
A quarter of the experts believe that the Fed may cut rates by 25 or even 50 basis points very soon - at its meeting on 31 July. More accurate market signals hopes to catch performances from FOMC member Richard Clarida in Finland July 1 and vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve, John Williams on July 2 in Zurich.
On the other hand, have not disappeared political risks and economic problems in the Eurozone. And it is possible that the ECB will also take additional package of measures to stimulate the economy, and this will happen at the meeting on 25 July.
Give any specific forecast for the coming week is not possible, as the experts' opinions were divided almost equally. However, if the move to the monthly and medium-term forecasts, there is 75% of analysts believe that the couple is required to take another attempt to update the lows of spring 2019 and still break through support in the 1.1100 area. The following goals for the Bears - 1.0900 and 1.0800. According to the remaining 25% of the experts, the area 1.1100 - is the limit of the fall, and a pair of growth expects to 1.1530-1.1650 zone.
As for the indicators, the majority of trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 painted green. However, for 20% oscillators provide signals about overbought;
- GBP / USD. British Prime Minister Theresa May is gradually disappearing into the shadows, and the main newsmaker on Brexit becomes the most likely her successor Boris Johnson. This week he said that, becoming head of the government will make every effort to preserve the possibility of a "hard" without a deal, its exit of the country from the EU. According to Johnson's opinion, such a threat will strengthen its position in negotiations with the European Union, and this policy is even willing to appoint a break in the work of Parliament.
On such rhetoric markets have already reacted to the fall of the pound against the euro. As for the GBP / USD, then there most of the experts (65%) expect a further weakening of the British currency, and the fall of the first pair to 1.2475-1.2500 area, and then, in July, and to a minimum 3 January 2019 - 1.2400.
Optimism and hope for a positive course of negotiations with the EU maintains 35% of analysts. In this case, the pair will continue to move upward. Nearest goal - 1.2775 and 1.2830, then 1.2930.
Compromise a cyclic movement of the channel 1.2500-1.2860 provides a graphical analysis on D1;
- USD / JPY. As already mentioned, the most likely outcome of the meeting of the President and the President of the Trump C at the G20 is to continue the endless and fruitless negotiations between the two countries. In such a situation global stock indices waiting for the fall, US monetary policy - easing and the dollar - weakening. On all investors, of course, respond the increasing demand for protective assets, including the yen.
However, the case is not one day, or even one week. In the meantime, for the strengthening of the Japanese yen and the movement of the pair to the south vote only 40% of experts and graphical analysis on D1. Another 30% have turned their eyes to the north, while the remaining analysts simply threw up his hands. Approximately the same situation among the oscillators and trend indicators on D1.
levels of support in the areas of 106.80-107.00, 105.50-106.00 then. Resistance of 108.85, 109.70 and 110.65;
- cryptocurrency. Founder and partner of Morgan Creek Digital Pompliano Anthony (Anthony "Pomp" Pompliano) Bitcoins predicted to grow to $ 100 thousand. In his opinion, the probability of such a development is 70-75% over the next 2.5 years.
A similar outlook and gives a well-known trader and analyst Peter Brandt (Peter Brandt). "Bitcoin sights on the $ 100,000. BTC / USD The pair is experiencing a parabolic fourth phase in 2010. No other market for my 45 years of trading have not looked at a logarithmic graph in this way "- he wrote.
But one of the founders Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee, and with it, and 45% of the experts believe that Bitcoin expects a strong correction. And not the fact that the fall of BTC / USD by 25% on 26-27 July, and it was exactly. Analysts do not rule out lowering zone couples to $ 7,500-8,000.
As for altkoynov of the top 10, that, according to the schedules of capitalization, they are gradually yielding its position digital currency №1. So, over the past 12 months only bitcoin shows growth, increasing its share in the total market capitalization from 41% to 66%. The share of the remaining coins or falling or, at best, remain at the same level.
P . The S . As expected, the final day of the summit in Osaka, the US President's meeting with Donald Trump's President Xi Jinping end a trade war is not put. Leaders could only agree on a respite in the fighting and the resumption of trade and economic advice on the basis of "mutual respect and equality."
Roman Butko, NordFX
Disclaimer: These materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.