First, a few words about the events of last week, the first working day which gave someone a lot of trouble, and someone pleasant surprises.
- did not really come to himself after the New Year, January 2 morning, the EUR / USD made a sharp jerk to the south, losing nearly 200 points a day. Later, however, everything was back to normal, and the pair quickly returned to the Pivot Point 1.1400, around which from October 2018. On Friday, January 05, taking advantage of positive data from the US labor market, the dollar tried to regain lost ground, but the attempt was unsuccessful, and the pair completed a week-long session at 1.1394.
- further sharp rise from 2018 in 2019 expected a couple of GBP / USD, which lost January 2, due to increased demand for the dollar, more than 400 points. Then, just as in the case with the European currency, the excitement came to naught, and the couple returned to the main line of support / resistance the last two months in the area of 1.2720;
- forecast USD / JPY pair assumed strengthening of the yen as a safe-haven. But the fact that during the one hour it will be able to play the dollar to 400 points on January 2, that is, almost all lost for the entire 2018, it was virtually impossible to predict. The cause of the incident was "holiday" a lack of liquidity in Japan, which was then removed. But finally recover the dollar and could not, and the pair ended the trading week at 108.50 area;
- cryptocurrency. Against the background of the major currency pairs bitcoin last week demonstrated a remarkable calm, continuing to lateral movement in a narrow corridor of $ 3,775-4,100 and returned by Friday evening there, which have repeatedly been in the last six weeks - to the level of $ 3,955. For example reference cryptocurrency, Olympic calmness and showed laytkoyn (LTC / USD). But Ethereum ripple and behaved more actively. For example, a pair of ETH / USD potyazhelela by 12%, rising above $ 160, and a pair of XRP / USD, on the contrary, has lost 7%, but was unable to break through the $ 0.3560 support.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summing up the views of several experts, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. As trend indicators and oscillators and H4 and D1 took a neutral position. Opinions of experts were divided as follows: 20% voted for the pair, 40% - for the sideways trend and 40% - for the strengthening of the dollar and the fall in the pair. It should be noted that during the transition from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of supporters of the strengthening of the US currency rises to 65%. Graphical analysis D1 also indicates a possible reduction pair to December lows 1.1215 zone. The next strong support zone - 1.1305.
As for the "bullish" scenario, then, according to his supporters, on the dollar will continue to push the political uncertainty in the United States. Closest 1.1485-1.1500 strong resistance zone, in case of a breakthrough for the next target would be consolidated in bulls zone 1.1550-1.1625.
Among the economic events likely to affect the exchange rates of dollar pairs, should pay attention to the FOMC US protocol, which will be published on Wednesday evening, January 9, the ECB meeting on Thursday 10 January, as well as data on inflation in the US, which will be released at the very end of the week - on Friday, January 11;
- GBP / USD. Here are some interesting speech the head of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney on 9 January as well as data on UK GDP, published on 11 January. However, in both cases, to expect any surprises it is not necessary, and for determining the course of the British pound still remains the uncertainty associated with the release of the UK from the EU. That is why 65% of the experts are predicting a further fall in the pound. In their view, supported by graphical analysis on the D1, a pair of first once again test the 1.2615 support and, if successful, will rush into the zone 1.2475-1.2525. Reach the minimum of the first week of January in the area of 1.2400 in the coming five days it is unlikely.
For sideways trend GBP / USD expressed 20% of analysts, and only 15% took the side of the bulls, suggesting movement of the pair in the corridor 1.2715-1.2835. Next resistance - 1.2925.
At the time of writing the forecast on the side of the bulls was about 90% and indicators. However, most likely, this is only a consequence of upward movement of a pair of 3-5 January. Moreover, 10% of the oscillators already provide signals about its overbought, which suggests a possible imminent reversal couples to the south.
- USD / JPY. Approximately half of the indicators is colored red, and a half - in green. As for the analyst, the 70% of them predict pair decrease to a level of 107.00, and then another 100 points below. For the pair to grow voted while only 30% of the experts, but in the medium term the number of supporters of the strengthening of the dollar doubled. The main aim for the bulls - a return to the zone 112.25-113.80. Surrounding resistance levels - 109.45, 110.25 and 111.15;
- cryptocurrency. Behavior BTC / USD does not give any reasons for optimism nor pessimism. Therefore, the experts' opinions were divided almost evenly: 30% of the growth of Bitcoin, 30% of its fall and 40% for the continuation of the sideways trend. The total capitalization of kriptorynka is at the end of December last year - around $ 130 billion, which also does not allow any forecast. While some experts based on the growth-drop cyclic quotations claim that I 2019 block. It will be on the side of buyers, and expect growth of pair up to $ 4,800-5,200 zone. Alternative scenario - the end of the correction and the fall of BTC / USD to the strong zone, recorded in July and August 2018, -. $ 2,500-2,700. In this case, such a reduction may take a month or two. The nearest support is located at $ 2,940-3.050 zone.
Roman Butko, NordFX