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Main » 2016 » June » 5 » Forex Forecast 6 - June 10, 2016: Gold, BENT, S & P500!
Forex Forecast 6 - June 10, 2016: Gold, BENT, S & P500!


Gold XAU / USD forecast for the week

Friday's upward movement in gold, in my opinion, is a correction, as the precious metal was under pressure in the last four trading weeks. By the end of May quotations XAU / USD fell by 6% and the correction is quite a natural phenomenon. However, many traders may be a logical question is this is not a correction, and the reversal of the trend and now we will see a strong increase in gold?



In my opinion, this is a correction for this scenario, there are two reasons. Firstly, Friday release on the labor market opens up the US stock market the way up, and the bulls will use this opportunity to hike in the area of ​​historic high, which was established in the spring of 2015 at the level of 2137.4. The increase in "risk appetite" is traditionally a negative impact on the value of gold as a safe asset. Secondly, in the G-7 economies, with the exception of the United States, a decrease in inflation expectations, which also plays into the hands of the bears, because gold is inflationary hedge asset. The speaker on Thursday the head of the ECB Mario Draghi pointed to expectations of negative inflation in the short term. In late May, pessimism CPI was observed in the camp of the Bank of England and Bank of Japan. 

Recommendations for gold for a week: Traders should sell the metal on the growth of quotations Sell to 1250/1263 and take profit around 1225.


Gold forecast for the week


Brent oil forecast for the week

As oil players should expect a decrease in quotations, but not before a lot like a down market can go to a new high in the region of $ 52 / barrel. Now investors disillusioned with the US dollar, because after labor market data significantly reduced expectations of tighter monetary policy FOMC. Dollar weakness can reassure the "bulls" on the opening of long positions and we will see the growth of quotations of maximum and a fresh year.Last Friday, the oilfield services company Baker Hughes has reported an increase in the number of US rigs 9 units. The greatest growth occurred in two states: Alaska and Texas. This factor, in turn, is negative for energy.Of course, it is too early to talk about the turn of the negative trend - perhaps this is just an isolated case. But if in the coming week, this trend will continue, that the strong downward correction in oil can not be avoided, as investors are frightened by this factor and begin to close long positions. You can not ignore the OPEC summit, which took place on 2 June. Participants of the meeting did not even discuss the issue of the ceiling of oil production. The fact that investors are actively waiting for the entire first quarter, second quarter (beginning with the April meeting in Doha) has come to "no." In Vienna I did not go Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, who stated that the cartel did not accept the key, turning solutions. In addition, States not members of OPEC, continue to increase production volumes, which hinders the process of price regulation. 

Recommendations for Brent for the week: Oil traders should sell DReNT Sell on the growth of quotations to 51.00 / 52.00 and take profit around 48.70.

forecast of oil for a week

S & P500 Index forecast for the week

In the coming week is not expected to important macroeconomic statistics from the US. During the week stock is to be expected for two reasons. Firstly, for the first three days of June the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell by 14 basis points, to a level of 1.7%, which is a positive factor for the stock market. The stock market is divided into two parts: equity (shares) and debt (bonds). In turn, stocks and bonds compete for investors' funds, and if the bond yield is reduced, it increases the attractiveness of investing in stocks. Secondly, one can not ignore the index of "fear" the VIX, which came to its lowest level in six weeks. This index indicates that investors are willing to take risks and will use the decrease in quotations for opening long positions. 

Recommendations SP500 week: Traders should buy Buy on decline of quotations to 2092/2075 and take profits around 2115.

Aleksandr Goryachev 
analyst « FreshForex »




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