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Main » 2016 » September » 29 » Forex forecast 29.09.2016: EUR / USD returned to the carrying line
Forex forecast 29.09.2016: EUR / USD returned to the carrying line


Forex forecast 29.09.2016: EUR / USD returned to the carrying line

 Results of the last trading day:

The euro / dollar closed a slight increase in relation to the Tuesday closing. The day was volatile due to external news background. The daily candle has long shadows, intraday pattern - W- shaped.




With the opening of trading in Europe, the euro / dollar fell to 1.1182 against the background of reduction of the cross pair euro / pound. When in the news it was reported that German authorities may provide public support to the bank Deutsche Bank, the euro rebounded sharply to 1.1237.


Made by the head the US Federal Reserve, the euro fell to 1.1187. J.. Yellen before the US Congress, said that the majority of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee considers it necessary to raise interest rates before the end of 2016. Those. a high probability that the rate will be raised in December this year.


When at a meeting in Algeria, OPEC members agreed to reduce the oil production at 740 thousand. Barrels to 32.5 million barrels a day, oil went up by 7%, to $ 49 per barrel. Accordingly, the US dollar fell in the forex market, the euro rebounded to 1.1220.


Expectations for today:

According to the forecast waiting for growth to 1.1252 in the morning. On the hourly period, the euro is a complex wave structure, so my prediction may not work. When formed in the base W- shaped model, the right side is trying to be similar to the left. This is the ideal. On the left side is a maximum at 1.1279. But the market can start to form a truncated triangle. Then for each update of the maximum will increase the risks of a sharp decline to 1.1190.


News of the day (GMT + 3): The  


At 15:30 the US - the final GDP growth Q2. 2016, the number of claims for unemployment benefits for the week of September 18-24        

At 16:00 MSK United Kingdom - presentation BOE board member of Forbes

At 17:00 the US - the number of pending home sales for August, speech FOMC Member Powell      

At 23:00 - speech of Fed Yellen


Technical analysis:

Intraday outlook: at least - 1.1214 (current in Asia), the maximum - 1.1252, closing - 1.1230.


Fig. 1 euro / dollar exchange rate, the time period. Data source: TradingView


The euro found support in the 1.1180 / 90. As I said above, the high volatility in the currency market caused by the news background. Fundamental factors are important technical signals. Just remember it and consider when opening a deal.


Against the background of recovery in oil prices to 49 dollars, the euro / dollar rose to 1.1236. Stochastic is in the sales area. But somehow I think that with the opening of the European session will update customers at most.


I spend a line across the top of 1.1226 and 1.1237. In the European session, the line passes through the level of 1.1252. That he will aim for Thursday. From him forward ostkok to 1.1233. In fact, the closing is expected at the line lb. If the price is to be held according to the forecast, the Friday will consider the strengthening of the euro to 1.1280.



According to the materials of Alpari



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