Results of the last trading day:
On Thursday, "evrobyki" tried several times to gain a foothold above the trend line resistance and 1.1190, did not happen. Price continually bounced in the area of 1.1165. After the release of macroeconomic data in the US, EUR / USD jumped to 1.1216.
Economic data in the US came out better than expected. EUR / USD reacted to the news of a decrease of 20 points against the background of increasing risk appetite rose to 1.1216. Buyers could not stay at that level. The euro / dollar back to 1.1170 after oil and gold before the performance Dzh.Yellen.
Number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US for the week to 21.05 reached 268 thousand. (Forecast was 273 thousand., The previous value of 278 ths.).
The index of orders for durable goods in the US in April was 3.4% (forecast was 0.4%, previous 1.9%).
The number of signed contracts to purchase homes in the US increased by 5.1%.
Market expectations for today:
Today the attention of market participants will be directed to the chairman of the US Federal Reserve statement Dzh.Yellen. Traders are hoping that it will clarify the prospects of tighter monetary policy of the Central Bank.Currently, futures on interest rates Fed indicate that the probability of a rate hike of 26% in June (it was higher than 30%) in July - 56%.
EUR / USD is trading at 1.1185. Given the fact that the probability of a rate hike down, then on Friday the euro expect consolidation in the range 1.1175 - 1.1215.
News of the day:
- At 15:30 MSK preliminary GDP will be released in the US in Q1. 2016.
- At 17:00 MSK US was to publish revised index of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations from the University of Michigan in May.
- At 19:30 MSK - speech of Fed Dzh.Yellen.
- At 20:05 MSK - The number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes.
Intraday Forecast: minimum - 1.1177, maximum - 1.1212, closing - 1.1198.
Fig. 1 euro / dollar exchange rate, the time period. Data source: TradingView
A trend line originating from a minimum of 1.1128 had to push through 1.1158. Currently, the euro is trading above 1.1180 support (gray area) around the trend line. In the current situation because of the performances Yellen, I would not rely on technical signals. There are false breakouts levels and signals from the indicators.
According to the forecast forward price fluctuations in the range 1.1175 - 1.1215. Today may form V or W-shaped pattern. I incline to the second - to the strengthening of 1.1212 and the return of the price to 1.1185.