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Main » 2016 » June » 3 » Forex forecast 06.03.2016: Euro adjusted to NFP
Forex forecast 06.03.2016: Euro adjusted to NFP



Results of the last trading day:

On Thursday, the euro / dollar closed lower. Recall that yesterday's meeting of the ECB left rates at the previous level: the key refinancing rate unchanged at 0.0%, the deposit rate at -0.40% and the rate on ECB loans at 0.25%. After the announcement of the ECB euro / dollar rate grew by 5 points to 1.1189, as the decision coincided with market expectations. The focus immediately shifted to the press conference M.Dragi.



She Mario Draghi again promised to keep interest rates at current or even lower level extended period of time.The controller can not cope with inflation. Draghi expressed the hope that inflation will eventually grow to the target level of 2%. After the speech of the ECB euro fell to 1.1145.


Market expectations for today:

Today, all attention is directed to report on the US labor market (Non-Farm Payrolls). The report will be released at 15:30 MSK. Yesterday's stats came out good:

Number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US amounted to 267 thousand. Vs. 270 thousand. And 268 thousand. A week earlier.

The number of new jobs in the private sector in the US (ADP) amounted to 173 thousand. Compared with a forecast of 175 thousand. And the previous value of 166 thousand.

Detailed review of the Non-Farm Payrolls at 15:00 I do MSK. Prior to the official release on the euro area is expected correction 1.1165.


News of the day:      

  • From 10:45 to 11:00 MSK will be published by the European PMI indices in services for May (Italy, France, Germany, the euro zone).           
  • At 11:00 MSK in Japan will be released PMI index in the services sector in May.
  • At 11:30 MSK UK is to publish an index of business activity in the services sector in May.           
  • At 12:00 MSK eurozone - the volume of retail sales for April.
  • At 15:30 MSK Canada - trade balance for April, labor productivity per 1 sq. 2016 USA - change in average hourly wages, changes in the number of jobs in non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate for May, as well as the trade balance for April.
  • At 16:45 MSK will be released in the US PMI index in the services sector in May.
  • At 17:00 in the US will be released PMI for non-manufacturing ISM spheres of May.
  • At 17:00 MSK US - the volume of industrial orders in April.


Technical analysis:

Intraday outlook: at least - n / a, maximum - n / a, closing - n / a.

Fig. 1 euro / dollar exchange rate, the time period. Data source: TradingView

Over 3.5 days truncated shaped formation on the hourly period. Evrobyki experienced difficulty with promotion prices up about 90 degrees of the top of the formation. After the performance of the ECB Mario Draghi euro broke through the lower boundary of the figure and dramatically collapsed to the level of 1.1145. Though sellers road was opened up to the mark of 1.11, the fall was restrained.

From high 1.1220 euro fell to 67 degrees. This level is always the good support at lower prices, or resistance, while its growth. With the level of 1.1141 started upward correction.

On the day I always do peyrolsa forecast to 15:30 MSK. NFP indicator is difficult to forecast due to constant revisions of previous values, so it is not known where the course will be a minute after the publication of a report on employment. At very low indicator (. Less than the forecast by 20 thousand) rate may return to the level of 1.1220, with a strong - fall to 1.1088. The vertical line is at 15:00 MSK. The price range on the NFP has shown in the chart.


Earn to currency fluctuations by investing in the  investment portfolio of Forex .

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