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Main » 2016 » April » 1 » Forex forecast 04.01.2016: The dollar corrected before the NFP
Forex forecast 04.01.2016: The dollar corrected before the NFP

Results of the last trading day:

The dollar can not oklematsya after a speech Tuesday, the US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen. It is sold throughout the market as expectations declined to raise interest rates in April and June.



For four days the EUR / USD rose by 216 points heading to 1.1386. Maximum formed at 1.1411 above the resistance zone of 1.1342 - 1.1376. With the current levels there are many willing to sell the single currency. I would have left the currency alone until Monday. From the creation of new jobs in the United States in March will depend return rate of EUR / USD at daily trend line or not.


Market expectations for today:

Today is a day of laughter. So with peyrolsom Friday will be fun. I believe that the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) below 190 thousand. Has already been included in the price. However, the previous performance report will be reviewed by the labor market a multi-component, so it is not known in which direction, and that will show the unemployment hourly wages. The growth of average hourly wages of 0.3% and higher with an increase in new jobs more than 210 thousand. Will cause a short-term strengthening of the dollar across the currency market.

News of the day:

  • From 10:15 11:00 MSK will be released in Europe indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector in March.
  • At 11:30 MSK will be released in the UK index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in March.
  • At 09:00 MSK eurozone will report on changes in the unemployment rate for February.
  • At 15:30 MSK US is to publish data on the level of unemployment, changes in the number of people employed in non-agricultural sector and changes in the average hourly wage for March.
  • At 16:45 MSK will be released in the US index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in March, and at 17:00 MSK - ISM manufacturing index and consumer sentiment index from Reuters / Michigan for March.

Technical analysis:

Today, without the forecast. Considering how in Asia to the US dollar weakened pound and the Australian dollar, to 15.30 MSK logical to consider the corrective movement of the euro to 1.1355 / 60. What will be the reaction to the report - I do not know. The only thing that I want to draw your attention to is the daily trend line breakout and completeness of the model "cup with handle". The model began to take shape with the maximum 1.1376: depreciation up to 1.0825 -> 1.1342 before recovery -> formation of the handle -> breakdown of 1.1342.

Positive data on the US labor market will turn bullish if the euro back under 1.13. In this case, the model "cup with handle" is canceled. If the dollar strong NFP data will not harden, then the first target for the euro will make the level of 1.15, then - 1.1860.


Analytics ALPARI


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