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Main » 2016 » March » 7 » Forex forecast 03.07.2016: Euro Dollar - expected correction.
Forex forecast 03.07.2016: Euro Dollar - expected correction.

Results of the last trading day:

On Friday, the increased volatility in the market persisted until the close of trading in Europe. At the end of the day the euro closed by growth. The report on the labor market in the US went great, but sellers are not able to defend the level of 1.10



The number of new jobs in the US non-farm payrolls for January increased by 230 thousand. The forecast of 185 thousand. The figure for January was revised upwards from 158 to 182 thousand. In December value was revised from 262 thousand. To 271 thousand. General review It amounted to 30 thousand.


Unemployment in the US in February remained at 4.9%. The level of involvement in the labor force increased by 0.2% to 62.9%.

Not without negative data in the report. average hourly earnings index was -0.1% (forecast was 0.2%, previous 0.5%).

First, the euro fell to 1.0902, then rose 140 points to 1.1043. Hourly earnings is a harbinger of what the Fed will not raise rates at the next meeting. In this regard, in the evening there was a weakening of the dollar on the entire market.

Market expectations for today:

On Monday, I always consider the movement against Friday. In addition, the economic calendar is empty, and the NFP report came out good. From EUR / USD waiting for a return to the level of 1.0955.

News of the day:

  • At 10:00 MSK Germany release manufacturing orders in January.
  • At 12:10 MSK speech made by members of the Commission's Andy Haldane of the Bank of England.
  • At 12:30 MSK euro zone will publish an indicator of investor confidence from Sentix in March.


Technical analysis:


  • Intraday goal: maximum - 1.1015 minimum - 1.0950, closing - 1.0980.
  • Intraday volatility over the past 10 weeks: 103 item (4 digits);


EUR / USD is trading at 1.0990. Carrying line on the hourly period is held in the European session after 1.0965.Through it passes the 67-th degree of Gunn. This level can act as a good support if the euro will weaken once with the opening of the European session.

The trend line is held in the first half of the day through 1.0939, but the second - through 1.0950. According to the forecast forward to the return of the price to 1.0950.

Analysis Alpari


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