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Main » 2016 » June » 2 » Forex forecast 02.06.2016 EUR / USD: Before the meeting, the ECB euro back to 1.12
Forex forecast 02.06.2016 EUR / USD: Before the meeting, the ECB euro back to 1.12



Results of the last trading day:

In anticipation of the ECB euro slumped to a level of 1.12. In the US session, the price doubled back to the level of 1.1150 after the release of the statistics in the United States.However, the high demand for the euro crosses evrobyki allowed to play all the incurred losses on the news.



Preliminary ISM index data is reflected in the increase in May. index of business activity in the manufacturing sector ISM in May rose to 51.3 compared with 50.8 in April and a forecast of 50.4.


Strong support received from the buyers of the growing cross euro / pound exchange rate. the latest survey results on Brekzit put pressure on the pound. The pair GBP / USD plummeted to 1.4385 minimum. By selling the pound on the entire market, market participants fear the UK exit from the EU. I think that polls manipulate the market and make money on it.  


Market expectations for today:

In Asia, the euro exchange rate in the moment jumped to 1.1213. A bullish continuation momentum is not received. The pair corrected. On Wednesday, buyers overcame two important levels - 1.1156 (trend line) and 1.1185 (resistance). The graph breakdowns marked circles. This bullish signals.

Traders are waiting for the results of the ECB meeting and the speech M.Dragi. He will present the revised forecasts for growth and inflation. Mario Draghi has a strong influence on the euro / dollar rate. He is able to send the course to 400 points up and down. His speech is how to increase the deposit, and reset. Since the technical signals are powerless before the fundamental, but now without a review of the forecast.


News of the day:      

  • At 11:30 MSK will publish the UK PMI index in the construction sector in May.
  • At 12:00 MSK will be released in the Eurozone producer price index for April.       
  • At 14:45 MSK ECB publishes decision on interest rates. 
  • At 15:15 MSK USA - Change in the number of employees (excluding agriculture) according to ADP in May.        
  • At 15:30 MSK will be a press conference by Mario Draghi, the United States will report on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in May 23-29.
  • At 15:35 MSK will perform FOMC member Jerome Powell.
  • At 18:00 MSK US - Change oil.
  • OPEC Summit.

Technical analysis:

Intraday outlook: at least - n / a, maximum - n / a, closing - n / a.

Fig. 1 euro / dollar exchange rate, the time period. Data source: TradingView

EUR / USD broke two important level course. The graph breakdowns marked. After the breakdown of the trend line crosses with the support of the euro strengthened to 1.1213. Growth slowed in pairs resistance line held at highs. Important border triangle on the chart are highlighted. At the lower boundary of the support it passes through 1.1189.

Given the overbought euro pound (trading at AI channel line U3) is a high probability for cross-country to see a downward correction.

During his speech, Mario Draghi is expected on the market highly volatile. Range fluctuations in the euro / dollar could reach 100 to 200 points. On Friday, the US will publish a report on employment. Because of external factors on Thursday and Friday trading is risky.

Earn to currency fluctuations by investing in the  investment portfolio of Forex .


Analytics ALPARI

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