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Main » 2016 » February » 4 » Forex forecast 02.04.2016: EUR \ USD - correction is expected after the break of the trend line
Forex forecast 02.04.2016: EUR \ USD - correction is expected after the break of the trend line

The results of the last trading day:

Since mid-December, "evrobyki" could not gain a foothold above 1.10. Now they rejoice and bless the head of the Federal Reserve Bank in New York V.Dadli that helped them get through important technical levels and to make the footsteps of short positions vendors.



It was enough to say that a strong dollar is a major concern for the Fed, US companies and the economy as speculators immediately began to sell the US dollar.

 At first it was pierced the resistance 1.0950, then the main trend line originating at a high 1.1712 and passing through the level 1.1045.


 The dollar fell, despite strong data on employment in the private sector in the US. They came out better than expected. In January, the number of jobs in the US were created 205 thousand. (Forecast 200 thousand., The previous value of 267 ths.). The previous value was revised upwards to 257 thousand. On Friday, the official report comes out.


 Data on the level of business activity in the US services from Markit and ISM came out below expectations and a weaker dollar strengthened. Now, market participants are betting that instead of 4 rate increases this year, the Fed will increase once or twice. The euro / dollar rose to 1.1145 and last traded at 1.1084 quotes.



Market expectations for today:

On Thursday morning, the attention of traders will be focused on the Bank of England meeting minutes and the Economic Bulletin of the ECB, in the evening - in the data on applications for unemployment benefits. On Friday, the US will publish a report on the labor market (Non-Farm Payrolls). Given that the euro is a few hours in the oversold zone, or pinning, then today consider the correction of the pair to the carrying line - 1.1050 / 45. That Friday Non-Farm Payrolls today makes me consider a rollback.

News of the day:

  • At 11:00 MSK - ECB President M.Dragi.
  • At 12:00 MSK ECB will publish the Economic Bulletin.
  • At 15:00 MSK Bank of England decision on interest rates (0.5%), minutes of the meeting, the volume of assets purchase program 375 billion pounds.
  • At 15:45 MSK an address by the head of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.
  • At 16:30, there are data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States.
  • At 18:00 MSK - the volume of industrial orders.


Technical analysis:


  • Intraday objectives: -1.1120 maximum, minimum - 1.1050, closing - 1.1080.
  • Intraday volatility over the last 10 weeks: 102 points (4 digits);


Today the key event for the currency market - the Bank of England minutes. According to forecasts it is expected that voting was 8 - 1 (save - to increase). In this regard, from the cross waiting for the afternoon decline, which presses on the euro with the dollar.

Now the price is above the U3 line. From 1.1070 rate may return to 1.1120. Growth for partial profit taking on long positions before the NFP. By the close of the European session is expected to fall to 1.1045 / 50. When the price of the book will meet with the line on the hourly period, the market balances out. Then traders will wait for the report on the US labor market.


Analysis Alpari
Views: 240 | Added by: mik | Rating: 0.0/0
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