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Main » 2016 » March » 2 » Forex forecast 02.03.2016: In euro overdue correction
Forex forecast 02.03.2016: In euro overdue correction

Results of the last trading day:

On Tuesday, the euro has updated the minimum against the US dollar and the closure of the day back to the level of 1.0875. The euro / pound exchange rate fell to 0.7756. According to the latest quotations pair is trading at 0.7782. The single currency remains under pressure due to concerns that the ECB at the next meeting may weaken monetary policy (lower deposit rate or extend QE).



In the US session, the dollar supported the published data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the US economy from the ISM and construction spending. Activity in the US manufacturing field by Markit contrary declined in February.


index of business activity in the US rose to the level of 48.2 to 49.5. construction cost index increased from 0.1% to 1.5%. index of business activity in the US by the company Markit fell from the level of 52.4 to 51.3.

Market expectations for today:

Today, I will single out two events, which can spike in volatility. The first report on business activity in the construction sector in the UK. Second, the report ADP (Automatic Data Processing, Inc.). On the hourly period, the technical picture indicates an upward correction (double bullish divergence between the indicator and the stock price).

News of the day:

  • At 12:30 MSK Britain will introduce PMI index for the construction sector in February.
  • At 13:00 MSK euro zone will release the producer price index for January.
  • At 16:15 MSK US will report on changes in the number of employees from ADP for February.
  • At 18:30 MSK in the US, there are data on changes in stocks of oil per week.
  • At 21:00 MSK will be released in the US Federal Reserve economic survey - "Beige Book".


Technical analysis:


  • Intraday goal: maximum - 1.0895 minimum - 1.0845, closing - 1.0865.
  • Intraday volatility over the past 10 weeks: 103 item (4 digits);


EUR / USD is trading around book line. The fact that the price rebounded from 1.0833 low to 1.0880, indicates a continuation of the correction movement. If the cross EUR / GBP moves sharply upwards to 0.7825, EUR / USD returns to 1.0895. Keep an eye on the statistics in the UK. From construction PMI index will depend on working out of the forecast. Will a weak index, the euro strengthened against the pound and the dollar. Strong on the contrary the index will not allow the euro to strengthen.

Analysis Alpari
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