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Main » 2016 » January » 27 » Forex forecast 01.27.2016: Before the Fed meeting on the euro, the dollar is expected to strengthen to 1.0895
Forex forecast 01.27.2016: Before the Fed meeting on the euro, the dollar is expected to strengthen to 1.0895

The results of the last trading day:

On Tuesday, the expectations for the single currency justified. At the auctions in Europe, the euro has updated the most against the US dollar fell to 1.0818, and then went back to 1.0868. Only the ending did not match. The market closed the day higher than forecast



Lots has been updated after the fall of European stock markets, which fell for the Chinese. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 6.72% to 2749.79 on continued capital outflows from China, which is at the end of 2015 reached $ 1 trillion due to the devaluation of the yuan, the economic slowdown and the downturn in the stock market.


The pressure on the euro was rising in price of oil and a reduction of cross-country euro / pound. Iraqi Oil Minister and OPEC representatives from Kuwait hinted that the organization is ready to cut production in order to stabilize oil prices, if the countries outside the cartel would be willing to cooperate.

The index of US consumer confidence for January was 98.1 (forecast was 97.0, the previous value was revised from 96.5 to 96.3).

Market expectations for today:

Today, a key event for all of the financial markets will be a meeting FOMC. From the Fed no one expects a rate hike. Interest for the market will be the accompanying statement on monetary policy. The tone of the statement will determine the direction of the dollar in the next two months. Soft tone will cause weakening of the dollar, the hard - strengthening.

News of the day:

  • At 10:00 MSK in German consumer confidence index will be released by GfK in February. Switzerland will present the indicator of consumer activity from UBS in December. UK is to publish an index of house prices.
  • At 10:45 MSK France will release consumer confidence indicator in January.
  • At 18:00 MSK will be released in the US new home sales for December.
  • At 18:30 MSK - Change oil according to the Ministry of Energy.
  • At 22:00 MSK will know the Fed's decision on interest rates and accompanying statement will be made by the Committee on the Federal Open Market.
  • At 23:00 MSK New Zealand Central Bank will announce a decision on interest rates and accompanying statement will be made by the RBNZ.


Technical analysis:


  • Intraday goals: maximum - n / a, at least - n / a, the closing - n / a.
  • Intraday volatility over the last 10 weeks: 100 points (4 digits);


In morning trading, the euro / dollar is trading at 1.0863. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 2.8%. Most likely, the European stock market opens lower than support the euro.

Oil reserves in the US, according to the American Petroleum Institute, last week rose sharply to 11.4 million barrels per day. Oil sluggishly responded to the report, but the decline may continue in the European session. In connection with this forward to the growth rate of the euro to 1.0895, then correction - Preparation for the meeting FOMC.

Analysis Alpari
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