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Main » 2016 » January » 19 » Forex forecast 01.19.2016: Euro dollar is expected to V - shaped model
Forex forecast 01.19.2016: Euro dollar is expected to V - shaped model

The results of the last trading day:

On Monday, the euro / dollar spent the day at 1.0900 level against the backdrop of the celebration of Martin Luther King Day in the US. The situation on the stock markets stabilized. Market participants do not even have to be proactive ahead of Chinese statistics in the Asian session.



Market expectations for today:

In Asia, China has published GDP data, the volume of industrial production and retail sales. The growth rate of China's GDP in 2015, on an annualized basis slowed down to 6.9% against 7.3% in 2014. These coincided with forecasts.

The volume of industrial production and retail sales were 5.9% and 11.1% vs. 6.0% and 11.3%, respectively.The market barely reacted to the data. This only confirms that market participants questioned the reliability and validity of statistics. The best indicators in this case are the baseline index of China. By 7:47 MSK they all went in, plus an average of 1.5%.

On Tuesday, the attention of traders will be focused on the release of economic data in Germany, the euro zone and the UK. I forecast turned V- shaped model with a minimum of 1.0854 at 112 degrees.

News of the day:

  • At 12:00 MSK eurozone inform of change in the balance of payments for November.
  • At 12:30 MSK Britain will release the retail price index, producer price index of selling, purchasing producer price index and the consumer price index for December.
  • At 13:00 MSK euro zone will publish the index of sentiment in the business environment of the ZEW institute in January, and the Consumer Price Index for December. In Germany, the sentiment index will be released in the business environment of the ZEW institute in January.
  • At 15:00 MSK speech of the Bank of England M.Karni.
  • At 18:00 MSK US will present the state of the housing market index from the NAHB in January.


Technical analysis:

  • Intraday goals: maximum - 1.0904 (current in Asia), at least - 1.0852, closure - 1.0887.
  • Intraday volatility over the last 10 weeks: 100 points (4 digits);


The euro / dollar is trading at 1.0885. The price is around the trend line. Since the Asian stock indices went into positive territory and oil does not fall, the projected forward from the euro to fall to 1.0854 followed by reduction to 1.0887. I put on the reduction of cross-country euro / pound.






The forecasts presented in this review are the private views of the author. Comments to them are not a recommendation to trade or manual work in the financial markets. Alpari does not accept any liability for any direct or indirect damages (or other types of damages) that may arise in the case of use of materials of the review. 
The review author retained the punctuation, spelling and style.

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