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Main » 2016 » January » 15 » Forex forecast 01.15.2016: Euro could return to 1.0930
Forex forecast 01.15.2016: Euro could return to 1.0930

The results of the last trading day:

The euro / dollar on Thursday showed shipoobraznuyu formation.Strengthening of the euro to the level of 1.0942 was caused by the news from Reuters and the fall in European stock markets. Reuters reported that the majority of representatives of the ECB against further easing of monetary policy. Stock indices at the time traded in the red at 2-3%.



In the afternoon, the euro weakened against the dollar amid rising oil prices, the increase in US stock indices and reduce cross-country euro / pound after the Bank of England.


Brent rose to $ 31.16 per barrel. The Bank of England kept interest rates at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at 375 billion pounds volume. The indices rose between 1.5%.

Number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US rose for the week at the level of 277 to 284 thousand.

Market expectations for today:

On Friday, the attention of traders will be focused on the dynamics of stock indices, as well as fundamental data in the United States. Japan's Nikkei 225 and China's Shanghai Composite traded in negative zone. Oil fell slightly.

If European indexes go down for Asia, the euro strengthened against the dollar to 1.0909. I forecast the outset to consider trading in the US, then the euro. On Monday, the United States celebrated Martin Luther King Day.Before a long weekend, US stock indexes may sag - respectively, the euro strengthened.

News of the day:

  • At 13:00 MSK euro zone will present the trade balance for November.
  • At 16:30 MSK US is to release retail sales for December, the index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in January, the producer price index for December.
  • At 17:00 MSK will take it a member of the Federal Open Market Committee Fed's William Dudley.
  • At 17:15 MSK in the US are data on the volume of industrial production in December.
  • At 18:00 MSK - consumer sentiment index from Reuters / Michigan in December.


Technical analysis:

  • Intraday goals: maximum - 1.0915 / 30, minimum - 1.0854 (current in Asia), closure - 1.0895 / 1.0900.
  • Intraday volatility over the last 10 weeks: 100 points (4 digits);


Euro / dollar 1.0834 adjusted minimum 45 degrees (Gann levels). At the end of the day it is expected to increase in closures. The reason for the strengthening of the euro, I wrote above. Not bad if the couple will stand up to the US session around carrying the line lb (55 average). From it expects growth to 1.0915 / 30.

Analysis Alpari


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