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Main » 2016 » September » 15 » Foreign exchange forex market. Forecast 15.09.2016: EUR / USD - selling, buying a pound.
Foreign exchange forex market. Forecast 15.09.2016: EUR / USD - selling, buying a pound.



Forex. Weather forecast on September 15, 2016


The main events for today traders:

11:30 MSK. United Kingdom: Change the volume of retail trade, taking into account the cost of fuel in August (the previous value of 1.4% m / m; the forecast -0.4% m / m).

12.00 MSK. Eurozone: Consumer Price Index for August (the previous value of 0.2% y / y; the forecast of 0.2% y / y).

14.00 MSK. United Kingdom: The decision on the basic interest rate of the Bank of England in September (the previous value of 0.25%; 0.25% forecast).

15.30 MSK. US: Retail Sales for August (the previous value of 0.0% m / m; the forecast -0.1% m / m).


Forex. Currency pair EUR USD forecast EUR / USD today 15/09/2016


Traders today should sell the euro dollar Sell for two reasons. 


First , today we can expect a moderately positive data on retail sales in the United States in August, which will support the dollar. The consumer confidence index from the CB in August reached the maximum level over the past ten months, which indicates an increase in consumer spending. However, strong data can not count today amid falling car sales, since this component accounts for about 25% of retail sales.


The second , on the eve of quotes black gold slipped 2.3% after the publication of data on stocks of crude oil from the US Department of Energy, which was shown on the production increase to 8.49 million. Barrels / day, which is the highest level for the last three weeks. Consumption of oil last week fell by 200 thousand. Barrels / day. Thus, we see that the growth in the number of drilling rigs increases the production of oil and, in my opinion, this is just the beginning of a trend. Today, we can expect further decline in quotations because in the world there is capital flight from risky assets, which include oil. The fall in oil prices has traditionally provided support to the US currency, as the raw material is quoted in dollars. 


Euro Dollar advice for investors: Today is For sale a couple Sell growth of quotations to be in the region of 1.1260 / 1.1290, and take profit at the level of 1.1200.



Forex. The currency pair Pound Dollar forecast GBP / USD today 15/09/2016


The main event for traders on the pound today with the American Bank of England's decision on monetary policy. Since the last meeting of the central bank on August 4, the yield of 2-year UK government bonds, which is closely correlated with the discount rate, increased by 0.05%, which implies a policy change. At the last meeting, the regulator has announced a rate cut before the end of the year and now the question is, when can we expect the realization of this scenario. If we take into account the fact that on December 14, the US Federal Reserve meeting where investors expect the increase in interest rates, the Bank of England, most likely will not cut rates at the meeting on 15 December because it can cause panic sell the pound and the flight of capital from British assets . It turns out we are left with two meetings: 13 October and 3 November. At the November meeting will be published quarterly inflation release and I think that on this day the monetary authorities will go to the new incentives. In preparing the report on inflation management of the Bank of England will have all the necessary information to make the right decision. It should be noted that the decrease in the discount rate on August 4 and was held in the period of publication of the release of inflation. Brexit was announced on June 24, but the monetary authorities did not start the stimulus package at a meeting on July 14 and took a break to obtain the necessary statistics. Today, Mark Carney and his colleagues noted the positive effect of the falling value of the pound to the trade balance and inflation in the medium term. Thus, today we can expect moderate demand for the British currency, because the market will not be surprises.


Pound Dollar advice for investors : today, it is worth buying a pair Buy's reduction of quotations to 1.3200 / 1.3160 ​​and take profit at the level of 1.3300.



Forex. Currency pair yen dollar forecast USD / JPY today 15/09/2016


Reducing the "appetite for risk" - is the main driver for strengthening Japanese currency today. The world's leading stock markets are still reeling: Asian, European and American markets finished the third trading day in the "red zone".The second consecutive day the worst feeling securities of the banking sector, especially European. Quotes highly profitable cross-rates also show a drop, which confirms the elimination of carry trade positions. As noted earlier today, the Bank of England will not make any changes in monetary policy, which deprives the UK stock market is a good support. New incentives from the Bank of England would certainly have a positive impact on quotations pair USD / JPY, however it is now can not count. It is impossible to ignore the dynamics of the credit market: the yield differential of 10-year US and Japanese government bond is reduced, which reduces the attractiveness of investing in US assets. In the afternoon we can expect the release of data on US retail sales better than expected median that will support the dollar and therefore, we can expect an upward correction. 


Dollar Yen advice for investors: Today, players worth selling forex pair Sell on the growth of quotations in the area of 102.50 / 102.80 and take profit at the level of 102.00.





Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst « FreshForex »

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