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Main » 2018 » April » 5 » Forecast on Forex today 05.04.2018: EURUSD - short positions
Forecast on Forex today 05.04.2018: EURUSD - short positions


Events today:

11:30 MSK. United Kingdom: PMI index for the services sector in March (the previous value of 54.5, forecast 54.2).

15:30 MSK. United States: the balance of foreign trade in February (previous value -56.6B; -56.5B forecast).

Forex forecast the euro US dollar EUR / USD today 05/04/2018




EURUSD - two reasons why traders to open short positions. 

First, decreasing the yield of the German 10-letnihbumag to their counterparts from America and England. Such dynamics caused primarily by positive statistics from the United States, where ADP has reported a strong increase in employment at the end of March.

Second, in the US session can be expected to yield data on the US trade balance better than expected median, which also have a positive impact on the value of the dollar. Export is strongly dependent on the value of the USDX, which at the beginning of the year showed a strong decline, which is a positive factor.

EUR / USD recommendation: Sell 1,2283 / 1,2302 and take profit 1,2235.





Pound Dollar forecast GBP / USD 15.04.2018

At present, formed a mixed background. On the one hand, the possible increase in the sterling exchange rate against the background of positive dynamics of the oil market, as the GBP / USD is highly correlated with Brent. On the eve of the US Department of Energy has reported a decrease in inventories of crude oil and gasoline, which is a positive factor for oil prices. Investors are now actively increasing their long positions in risky assets, which will provide support for oil. In this regard, the possible growth of quotations Brent to 68.95 $ / barrel. On the other hand, this week we get weak data on UK PMI index and if today's release of the service sector again disappoint traders, the pound will fall under a powerful wave of sales.

GBP / USD recommendation: flat 1,4025-1,4120.




Forex dollar yen forecast pair USD / JPY 05.04.2018

An uptrend is gaining momentum, and join this trend is not too late. Today, players should not expect growth of quotations to the level of 107.36, for two reasons.

First, the US stock market shows growth, which is positive for the pair, due to strong correlation USD / JPY and S & P500. On Wednesday, the ISM has reported on the growth of the US economy in the first quarter by 3.6%. I recall that a year ago the United States GDP increased by 2%. Fed forecasts GDP growth of 2.7% in 2018. Thus, ISM points to strong growth, which is positive for the stock market. According to the S & P500, I expect growth of quotations in the region in 2699.

Second, the debt market is positive dynamics for US assets: the differential yields on 10-year US and Japanese government bonds went on a five-day maximum.

USD / JPY recommendation: Buy 106,88 / 106,67 and take profit 107,36.




Aleksandr Goryachev

Company analyst FreshForex



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