Yes, we predicted yesterday pullback AUD / USD and EUR / USD commit to the planned entrance areas for sale. Australian correction reached the "planned" 0.6980 area and again got down the main trend. Euro even slightly interrupted input range on 1,1180-1,12, but as of this writing at 1.1177 gives profit to those who get up there for sale.
The reasons for the correction became known factors. In euro - again increased risk aversion in currency funding again Screwtape China. Reduced GDP growth forecast from 7.4% to 7.3%. An interesting report was released this morning at 8.09 China's trade surplus. The balance is very positive - 60240000000. The forecast of 48.2 billion. But if you dig deeper, it does not remain positive. Judge for yourself. Exports fell just less than imports - by 5.5% versus 13.8%, and that growth has turned positive balance. But most importantly, because both are reduced! A drop in exports, on which rests the whole Chinese economy - an alarming bell. China's stock index Shanghai Composite fell in the morning on September 8 the next 1.38%.
That has strengthened the euro, again remembering its role of funding currency. And some pullback in oil prices up and the current oversold commodity assets led to the correction and Australian.
Today, we pay attention to the GDP for the 2nd quarter in the euro area. If, as expected, it will be better than the last, the euro will continue to receive support and correction to the area 1,1250-1, 1310. However, hardly will go higher because the movement of currencies this week, as you know, is limited to a very powerful factor - the expectation of the Fed decision at a rate of 15-16 September. Hardly investors will take sharp movements before, perhaps fateful events. So it makes sense at the end of the correction of the signs to sell the single European currency to the dollar from those heights with a small, local take profit 1, 1210 - higher technical and psychological level of 1.12.
Commodity currencies as well as before, remains under pressure as the stabilization of oil prices is not reliable - too many factors working against them. Therefore, it is advisable to re-examine the transaction on the sale of these assets. For example, AUD / USD - from 0,6990-0,7010. In order 0.6960.
Chart EUR / USD H4:
Mark Goikhman analyst TeleTrade
The company TeleTrade - 20 years in the financial market