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Main » 2015 » November » 5 » Forecast EUR / USD: approaching an important support area
Forecast EUR / USD: approaching an important support area

The results of the last trading day:

Expectations of the weakening of the euro to materialize. Strong data on the index of business activity in the services sector of the US ISM, ADP and comments from Fed Chairman Janet Yellen endorsed the US dollar.



The number of jobs in the private sector in the US has declined from a level of 190 to 182 thousand. (forecast was 180 thousand.)


The index of business activity in the services of the Institute of Management in the US in October was 59.1 (forecast was 58.0, previous 59.0).

Market expectations for today:

The dollar is supported by the growth of the probability of raising key interest rates in the United States in December, and the possible easing of monetary policy by the ECB.

Today, a key event for financial markets will be a meeting of the Bank of England. According to the forecast it is expected that interest rates will remain at the same level - 0.5%. For traders are important results of the vote, and that will tell M.Karni after the meeting.

Main news of the day:

  • 10:00 MSK Germany - change in the volume of orders in the industry.
  • 13:00 MSK euro zone - data on retail sales.
  • 14:45 MSK ECB President M. Draghi.
  • 12:00 MSK - ECB monthly report.
  • 15:00 MSK UK - Bank of England decision on interest rates, minutes of the meeting, the accompanying statement.
  • 15:45 MSK Speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.
  • 16:30 MSK US - initial applications for unemployment benefits.
  • 16:30 MSK USA - This member of the Federal Open Market Committee Fed's William Dudley
  • 17:10 MSK US - Speech Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer.
  • 17:50 MSK US - consumer confidence index.
  • 18:00 MSK Canada - PMI managers from Ivey.
  • 21:30 MSK USA - This member of the Federal Open Market Committee Federal Reserve D. Lockhart.


Technical analysis

  • Intraday goals: maximum - 1.0880, at least - 1.0813, closure - 1.0840.
  • Intraday volatility over the last 10 weeks: 119 points (4 digits);


Euro / dollar fell below the low of October 28, 2015. You're support area 1,0807-1,0838 and open the way to 1.0520. According to the indicator AO no bullish divergence, so expect a minimum update. My goal - 1.0813. If the cross EUR / GBP will not interfere, you can test 1.0800. Although very much doubt that before peyrolsom uydёm at 1.0800.

Analysis Alpari


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