Market Forecast for the week 25 -29 January:
Rate of gold to the dollar XAU / USD forecast for the week
In the first half of the week the precious metal will be under pressure against the background of the demand for "risky assets". In the first half of January XAU / USD enjoyed a steady demand in the face of strong sales in global equity markets. Investors panic rid of "risky assets" amid fears of a significant slowdown in economic growth in China. Against this background, the capital went to these "safe assets" like gold and the Japanese yen. At the end of last week we have seen the opposite trend: investors to open long positions in risky assets, as the current low levels attractive enough for both short- and medium-term investments.
It is impossible to ignore the ECB press conference, where Mario Draghi pointed to a strong decline in inflation expectations in the euro area. In the middle of the month I talked about this, and his colleague from the Bank of England. Thus, investors are still no need to hedge against inflation risks through the gold, which is also a negative factor for the stock "yellow metal". In the second half of the week is necessary to pay attention to the FOMC decision on interest rates. In light of recent events: the strengthening of the dollar, the reduction of China's GDP and strong sales in the oil market - FED interest rate will not change. In my opinion, the changes we see and on 16 March. Fed once again point to the fears of slowing global growth and reduce inflationary expectations. In 2015, the growth rate of core inflation was 2.08%, against 1.61% a year earlier. This factor leaves the Fed room to maneuver - we can see a rise in interest rates in June and September. Now, however, the changes should not be expected, that will put pressure on the US dollar, and thus have a positive impact on the value of the precious metal.
Recommendations for gold for the week: Traders should not expect sideways trading in the range of 1070 -1115.
Platinum and palladium XPT / USD and XPD / USD forecast for the week
During the week, we should expect the predominance of "bullish" sentiment. Both metals trading last week completed in the "green zone", which indicates the stabilization of the market. No investment ideas in the market now is not - is banal correction of "risky assets", which has a positive effect on the platinum group metals. Some investors fixes profits on short positions, the other part to open long positions at the low, attractive levels. In this context, we observe a smooth increase in prices. As mentioned earlier, from the US Federal Reserve at the upcoming week should not expect changes in monetary policy, which will put downward pressure on the dollar and plays into the hands of the "bulls" because the cost of commodities denominated in the US currency.
Recommendations for platinum and palladium for the week: traders should buy Buy for XPT / USD quotes at reducing to 822/812 and record profits and around 856 open Buy position on the XPD / USD quotes at reducing to 489/480 and take profits around 514 .
S & P500 index forecast for the week 25-29.01.2016
The players of the financial markets are two reasons why open long positions on the index SP500.
First, after a considerable carry trade liquidation of positions in the first half of the month, investors again awakened "appetite for risk" and they began to open long positions in risky assets at attractive levels. Troublemaker in global stock markets the Chinese stock market for the first time in the last four trading weeks of completed trades in the "green zone" - the growth of quotations on the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.85%. Rising optimism will contribute to the predominance of "bullish" sentiment in the US stock market.
Second, FOMC meeting on January 27 will not change its monetary policy, which is a positive factor for the stock market. In view of recent sales in the oil market, as well as a slowdown in retail sales can expect a moderately negative comments on short-term inflation expectations from the monetary authorities. Since the last meeting of the FED yield of two-year Treasury bonds, which reflects investors' expectations for interest rates, decreased by 13 basis points, which clearly confirms the negative trend. In my opinion, this upward trend will be short-term, medium-term positioning as market participants indicating that you have entered a phase of bearish trend. Of the nine major sectors of the US stock market, least of all now suffering non-cyclical sector companies, which traditionally receives support in times of instability.
Recommendations traders on the index SP500: At the auction of the week is to buy Buy S & P500 to reduce prices to the levels of 1895/1870 and record profits in 1943 mark.