In anticipation of the financial doomsday
The world froze in anticipation of the global financial crisis. Some analysts predict that its offensive in the coming months, while others give a reprieve until the end of 2020 - beginning of 2021. But those and others draw enough apocalyptic paintings. The collapse in the price of oil, copper and iron ore, falling stock and currency, layoffs and bankruptcies.
One of the most famous economists - Nouriel Roubini believes that the crisis will be very soon - at the end of 2019 - 2020 years. Recall that the previous it was completely accurate forecast. And now, in an article in Project Syndicate Roubini leads a number of signs of impending disaster. Among them, along with the trade wars that the US is waging with China, the EU and other countries, Roubini calls the increase in the US Fed interest rates and the recession caused by the discontinuation of fiscal stimulus.
For the above reasons the pace of US economic growth may slow to 1%, with the result that the country will face a shortage of jobs and unemployment. We must not forget that the foreign exchange reserves of most countries are denominated in US dollars, so the crisis of the US economy are more likely to cause a collapse of the world.
But is all horrible, really?
Firstly, soothes that the crisis - a phenomenon temporary and cyclical. If we turn to the theory of medium-term economic cycles, we can see that from the beginning of the Great Depression in 1929, they occur about once every 7-12 years.
The first crisis in the XXI century - is bursting dotcom bubble (mainly American Internet companies) in 2000. Since 1994, the NASDAQ rose by more than 500%, and that on March 10, 2000. in just one day, he fell more than half. Then the decline continued until 2003.
The next crisis of 2008 was caused by the bursting of the bubble in the US mortgage lending. And now we are getting closer to a new boiling point, which is based on the overheating of the US economy, increased global instability. Last summer, the S & P500 in the basket which included 500 US companies with the highest capitalization peaked and came close to the mark of 3.000. And in January 2010, he was exactly 3 times lower - 1.000. That is, for nearly 10 years we have seen a continuous growth in the US economy. Estimated ACCA chief economist Michael Taylor, this is the longest period of growth in 150 years. And if you focus on the theory of cyclical crises, the next of which time would have come.
And in Washington?
«Естественно, об этом знают и руководители ФРС, и президент Дональд Трамп, – говорит ведущий аналитик брокерской компании NordFX Джон Гордон. – И тут надо вспомнить, что следующий, 2020 год, – это год очередных президентских выборов в США. Если Трамп хочет возглавить страну во второй раз (а, судя по всему, он хочет), то он никак не может допустить обвала американской экономики, падения доходов населения и роста безработицы. Избиратели это ему ни за что не простят! Поэтому в течение всего последнего времени мы можем наблюдать, как Трамп давит на руководство Федеральной Резервной Системы, настаивая на смягчении финансовой политики. И, похоже, Федрезерв может пойти на поводу у президента.
So, after last December, the Fed raised the benchmark interest rate from 2.25% to 2.5%, still expecting three or even four of its increase until mid-2020. However, the opposite has happened - from 31 July 2019. rate became 2.25% again. But the Fed chief Jerome Powell, speaking at the end of August at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole (United States) said that the Fed is ready to provide more stimulus if slowing economic growth.
Aimed at easing policy, and many other central banks, including the main European regulator - the ECB. It expresses support for its economy and China's leadership. So there is hope that the joint efforts will be able to prevent a crisis if not, then at least move it to the beginning of 2021.
Jena, bitcoin, gold - scalene triangle
Accumulating resources, the largest US corporations already revising the priority of payment of dividends to its shareholders, which makes think again: what if a crisis breaks out in the coming months? What to do? In what assets to invest, not to be left with nothing?
Currencies like the yen and could be regarded as a safe haven. But they are still very dependent on the oil market, and on the profitability of US government bonds. For a while, the Japanese yen, of course, be able to stay afloat. But if the crisis is serious enough and long, its fate may be unenviable.
What are the other options? Kriptoentuziasty like Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee and co-founder of Morgan Creek Anthony Pompliano offer to invest in bitcoin, convincing investors that this virtual coin has become a safe asset, able to hedge currency risks. However, many experts this way a store of value is a fair question. "Answer yourself the question - offers John Gordon of NordFX - as a safe haven may be a bitcoin, if only from 08 to 15 August this digital currency has lost more than 20% of its value collapsed from $ 12,000 to $ 9,500? And this without any crisis! "
With such a breakneck volatility bitcoin is not a safe haven and an ideal tool for high-risk speculation. Well, a refuge not only from fluctuations in the traditional financial markets, and by ... their younger colleagues in the digital market - altkoinov interest which continually tends to zero. Of course, it is possible that at the time of the crisis the price of the main cryptocurrency rapidly go up. But she can fly down just as quickly. The probability of 50 to 50. We are talking about is actually a safe asset. And this, according to many experts, of course, gold.
Over the past 20 years, the precious metal rose in price from $ 275 an ounce in September 2000 to $ 1550 in September 2019, bringing investors a profit of 460%.
According to calculations by the analyst and producer daily bulletin "Gold forecast» ( «The Gold Forecast») Harry Wagner, the last major bullish wave began in late 2015, after the correction of up to $ 1040 and suggests that gold could retest the record highs of 2011, reaching in 2020. price of $ 2070-2085 per ounce.
Only in the last year, from September 2018., The yellow metal rose by 30%. According to the World Gold Council (the WGC), gold demand in the first six months of 2019 reached three-year high (2181 tonnes), mainly due to record purchases of the precious metal by central banks transform their dollar reserves to more secure, in their opinion, the assets .
"Of course, the above figures look very attractive, - says the analyst of NordFX. - Yes, and the central banks can be viewed as an example. However, you must keep in mind that if in anticipation of the recession the demand and, consequently, the price of this metal is growing, then at least to stabilize the economy, they may fall. And, seriously enough. And to wait for the moment when the price moves back up, the investor must have patience - the process can take 5, 10 or more years. In this case, when we talk about hedge financial risks during the global crisis, gold can actually be selected as the preferred asset. As for short-term and medium-term speculation with him, it's quite another matter that requires a completely different approach, which must be treated separately.
Warning: these materials are not a recommendation to invest or guidance on working in the financial markets and are purely exploratory in nature. Trading on the financial markets is risky and can lead to complete loss of funds contributed.