Results of the last trading day EURUSD:
According to the results of last week, the major currencies except the yen showed a strengthening of the US dollar. The greatest growth was euro (+ 1.60%). The Swiss franc has risen in price by 1.22%, the New Zealand dollar - 0.81%, the British pound - to 0.77%, the Canadian dollar - 0.28%, and the Australian dollar - 0.13%. The Japanese yen fell by 0.69%.
Fig. 1. Dynamics of the dollar this week
On Friday, the euro trades in the growth. The euro rose 110 pips to 1.1640. Market participants reacted to the dollar sales in the US Bernanke speech Dzh.Pauella at a symposium in Jackson Hole. They thought his performance enough optimistic.
Powell said it was necessary to continue the approach of gradually increasing interest rates to protect the economy, control inflation and maintain a low level of unemployment. President of the Federal Reserve Bank in Cleveland Mester said it also supports the process of a gradual increase in rates in the US.
Fuel to the fire poured the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Bullard. He said that the Fed should stop the process of raising rates. According to him, next year will cease to operate the effect of tax cuts. In this regard, the pace of economic growth slows, inflation remains under control.
Another negative factor for the dollar and positive for the Euro could be a sharp appreciation of the yuan by 1.3%, to 6.80. People's Bank of China suddenly decided to resume the use of "counter-cyclical factor" in the mechanism of fixing the yuan, which had been suspended in January. Maybe in the talks about something right?
The US and China have completed two days of trade talks. exchanged views on how to achieve fairness, balance and reciprocity in economic relations. In this case, nothing is said about whether the parties failed to come to any consensus on the solutions of current problems or not. If Trump asked to enter more trade sanctions on Chinese goods, then we do not agree.
Published statistics in the United States:
orders index for durable goods in the US in July was -1.7% (forecast was -0.6%, previous 0.7%).
Planned statistics (GMT +3):
At 11:00 Germany will publish the terms of the business environment from IFO indicator, an indicator of the current situation from the IFO, and an indicator of the IFO economic sentiment in August.
At 15:30 the US will present the economic activity index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in July.
At 17:30 Report of the Bank of Canada
Fig. 2 All graph EUR / USD
Current Situation EURUSD:
On Friday, the fundamentals were stronger than technical. First, the price recovered to balance the line lb - 1.1572, the US session - up to 1.1640. Growth stopped at the 90 th degree.
In Asia, buyers Friday EURUSD moved up to 1.1653. I believe that after Friday's rally will form a model with three vertices as from 21 to 22 August. Especially at the level of 1.1670 is the daily upper line of the channel, which will act as resistance in the first half of the week.
Weekly candle closed growth. If this week the EURUSD buyers will be able to raise the rate to 1.1700, then the weekly TF locks reversal formation. Given that today is Monday, after Friday's rally, you can consider selling the euro -zone of 1.1660 / 1.1665.
EURUSD Forecast for today Vladislav Antonov Alpari