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Main » 2015 » September » 23 » Euro, Australian, NZ: Will the correction after China?
Euro, Australian, NZ: Will the correction after China?

The movements after the Fed uncertainty in the currency market again intervened a little half-forgotten Chinese factor. The China PMI released by Caixin / Markit in the industrial sector - the September PMI.

He fell to 47 from 47.3 points at the forecast 47.5 n. An acceptable level is considered to be more than 50 p., Indicates an increase in activity, resulting in the subsequent economic growth. Now, figure - a minimum of 6 years. And once again began to talk about China's slowing down, on the overheated stock markets. IMF chief Christine Laggard said the strengthening of downside risks. And even the Asian experts have lowered the forecast for   GDP growth in 2015 from 7% to 6.8-6.9%.

Stock index in this background give a marked decline. Shanghai Shanghai Composite fell 2.2% to 3116. On the other hand, the "fear index» VIX immediately rushed up to 11.42% compared to 22.44. In a quiet market, this indicator gives a zone of 14-18 points.   From this dynamic, gone over to the forex market, currencies of the countries most affected, exports to China - Australia and New Zealand. However, from a technical point of view, it is important here that. The strong drop in the last days of these currencies against the US dollar has led to the achievement of the important support levels.

For AUD / USD  - 0.7035 level is broken,   and further the goal couples - 0,6910-0,6940. However, after a sharp decline in the pre-correction arises to lock in profits. Technically, it can reach the resistance at 0,71-0,7140. Here, the intersection of important levels - horizontal extrema lines and Fibonacci 38.2 and 50 in the timeframe H4.

At the pair NZD / USD is similar dynamics, but similar support 0.6520 not broken, and from it is likely to rebound 0,6330-0,6360 - descending trend line on the D1 and the peaks of September 20-21, to the last pulse decrease. 

The main currency pair EUR / USD today will experience the impact of the two events. This is the output of the production index of business activity in September and it ECB President Mario Draghi. Fundamentally both are expected as a negative for the euro. In the case of the expected "pigeon" and words of his speech about the possible expansion and extension of the program money.

This is especially true Draghi. May sound overtly soft notes and promises to expand or extend the asset purchase.Then do not stand support at 1.11, and the pair will go to 1,1030-1,1050. But in terms of technology  a correction to levels 1,1240-1,1280 - breached the uptrend line and correctional Fibo levels.   From these areas it is advisable to consider the sale of the asset.

Chart EUR / USD H4: 




Mark Goikhman analyst  TeleTrade

The company TeleTrade - 20 years in the financial market 


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