Results of the last trading day:
In the Monday, May 22, the euro trading ended in positive territory. In early European trade, the price fell to 1.1717, from where the rebound occurred. First, the euro rose against the dollar to 1.1779 at US session - up to 1.1796.
Euro ricocheted amid easing concerns about the political situation in Italy. Party "League of the North" and "Five Star Movement" chose the candidate for prime minister, and it must submit to the President of Italy.
In the American session, the euro strengthening contributed to the weakening of the trade tensions between the US and China and a decrease in the yield of 10-year US bonds (US10Y). Note that between the pair EUR / USD and US10Y again became negative correlation.
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said yesterday that at the moment a trade war between China and the United States stopped.
Planned statistics (GMT +3):
At 11:30 Britain will publish data on the change in net borrowings of the public sector in April.
At 12:00 will be held hearings on the inflation report. He addressed the head of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, as well as members of the Commission of the Bank of England and Michael Saunders Gertjan Vlige.
At 13:00 Britain will publish balance of industrial orders according to CBI in May.
At 15:30 Canada will declare the change of volume of wholesale sales for March.
At 17:00 the US will release its manufacturing index for May Richmond Fed.
Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView
The trend sellers advanced to 1.1717 against the general strengthening of the US dollar and the uncertainty with the Italian government. when the support 1.1740 My fears were in vain rebound.
Again, the news triggered a rebound factors. And as the couple was ready for it, then on positive news from Italy, followed by a sharp increase in prices.
Growth stalled in the upper channel line "A-A" and 67 degrees. After the rebound on the daily chart has formed pinbar or hammer. And because China and the US trade war to pause, then we can expect further development of ascending correction above 1.18.
Given that the US dollar mixed dynamics, and all crosses with the euro traded in the red, then the forecast, I first examine the trend decline to 1.1750, then turn up. I have shown that the forward outlook. But at 45 degrees. should not rush to buy the euro against the trend. He was not broken, and sellers can cancel pinbar. The trend of prices can quickly go back to yesterday's lows. From which it is likely a new rebound.
Forecast EUR / USD today Vladislav Antonov Alpari