Today morning, February 22, the EURUSD continued to slowly decline - the currency pair is trading at 1.2275, ie It recorded a decline of 39 pips in the last 24 hours.
Several key factors cause reduction pair EURUSD over the past day.
Firstly , according to yesterday's economic reports IHS Markit Eurozone, Eurozone GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018 will be on a new assessment about 3.5-3.6% in annual terms, and not 4.0% as expected last month. Thus, the Euro is being corrected, because the financial participants revised down slightly their upbeat outlook for the European economy.
Secondly , according to yesterday's economic reports IHS Markit US, forecasts for the pace of US economic growth in the current first quarter of 2018 have been revised considerably upwards compared to the projections, which came out in January: it is expected that the US GDP growth of almost 3% the first quarter of the year, as was previously assumed that the growth will be very sluggish - in the range 1.9-2.2%.
Third , published yesterday in 22:00 (GMT + 3) minutes of the January meeting of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) does not surprise financial participants, ie, surprises were not - the Fed continues to maintain that on the background of recovery in the US economy will continue to slow the regulator to tighten monetary policy.
Against the background of a significant improvement in forecasts for the US economy and lowering the expected growth in the euro area and the lack of surprises for the market by the Fed, it seems to me that there is a real chance, and to further reduce the EURUSD pair.
Today, it is desirable to pay attention to the minutes of the last meeting of the European Central Bank, which are published in the 15:30 (GMT + 3).
Forex forecast rate EURUSD:
On the weekly chart (W1) EURUSD pair is trying to form another "Bearish engulfing":
In my opinion, if at the end of the week formed "Bearish engulfing", given that two weeks ago, has already been formed another "bearish engulfing" (M1 on the graph), it will be a very solid signal indicative of the fact that in EURUSD at week timeframe vertex formed.
On the hourly timeframe (H1), the EURUSD has entered the consolidation scope of the January (1,2190-1,2290):
I assume that in the coming days the EURUSD tries to descend to the lower limit of consolidation, ie to about 1.2190 mark.
Vesselin Petkov Alpari