Philip Verleger said that by 2020, oil quotes will increase significantly from the current levels and reached a level of $ 200 per barrel. This trend will lead to an economic crisis.
He is of the opinion that at the beginning of 2020 will be traced shortage of diesel fuel with low sulfur content, as new standards by the International Organization of maritime transport, the main purpose of which a reduction of emissions of sulfur are introduced.
The sector accounts for about 5% of the world demand for oil since the bulk ships using fuel with high sulfur content. This will lead to the fact that the owners of maritime transport is necessary either to convert the ship and put the cleaners, or switch to diesel with low sulfur content or liquefied natural gas (LNG).
The best option for such companies - a diesel with low sulfur content, as cleaners and LNG - quite expensive.
Against this background, the expert expects an increase in demand for the production of low-sulfur diesel rates by nearly 7%. In turn, the cost of crude oil with high sulfur - will fall.
Some analysts share the view Verleger and it was confirmed that in 2020 oil futures strengthened to $ 160 and higher. They also set up quite pessimistic and say a decline in economic activity, increase in food prices due to fuel growth. In addition, they report on growth and unemployment has a number of negative factors.
But the study of the global energy policy of the Center at Columbia University disagrees with this position and believes that, subject to the reorientation of the owners of vessels for fuel with low sulfur content will lead to innovative solutions refining companies. Namely, the fuel will be a hybrid, as its production will depend more on mixing than reprocessing.
Based on materials WELTRADE