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Main » 2016 » January » 22 » Draghi pledged to further easing policy in March
Draghi pledged to further easing policy in March

The European Central Bank at the end of yesterday's session to save the parameters of monetary policy unchanged. Namely, the refinancing rate at a record low of 0.05%, the deposit rate at -0.30%.



With the December meeting of the external environment has deteriorated significantly, continuing fall in oil prices, intensified concerns about the deepening of China's problems and their negative impact on the global economy. This all leads to the fact that the efforts of the ECB to bring inflation down to the 2% target, in fact, be reduced to zero. Annual inflation in December stood at 0.2%.

During the press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi said that the next meeting be held on March 10, it will be necessary to review the monetary policy. He also noted that the decisions taken at the last meeting have been timely, moreover, pointed to the increasing volatility in commodity and financial markets, as a factor of pressure in deciding on the rate. In addition, according to Draghi, the credibility of the central bank will be undermined if it is ready to review its policy after its disposal will be all the information.

According to data released yesterday, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States in the week of 10-16 January, adjusted for seasonal variations increased by 10 thous., To 293 thousand., And it was the highest level since the beginning of July. It was expected that the figure will be 277 thousand. The number of initial claims for the week of 3-9 January was revised up to 283 ths. To 284 ths.

The number of initial claims increased for three of the last four weeks, but the data for this period are usually volatile due to the winter holidays. However, even taking into account this factor, the number of applications was very low by historical standards.

Last year, the number of initial claims was at a minimum level since 1973. The rate of recruitment of new staff in the last month were quite high, in spite of the unstable situation in the world economy, which has deteriorated since the beginning of the year.

The euro / dollar yesterday dropped to a mark of 1.0777 on Draghi's comments, and then played the part of the loss.

The following week, on January 26-27 will be held this year's first meeting of the Fed. Changes to the parameters of monetary policy will not be in December, rates were already raised, so US regulators will need time to assess the consequences of these decisions. The tone of the statements, with high probability, will be designed in a manner Committee closely monitors the incoming economic data and monitors the risks in commodity markets and the risk of slowing down the Chinese economy, if necessary, appropriate decisions will be taken.

The composite index of purchasing managers in the euro zone in January, fell to 53.5 from 54.3 in December, which is the lowest value in 11 months. It was expected the index to decline to 54.1.

The company reported a drop in purchase prices, and this decline was the second largest since July 2009. This suggests that declining oil prices could increase the company's profitability in the near future. At the same time, the company reduced selling prices at the fastest pace in 10 months.

The ECB is likely to take account of these data as they confirm the validity of concerns about the prospects and the need for additional stimulus measures.

According to a survey of the ECB, published today, the forecast for the harmonized consumer price inflation (HICP) in the euro area this year was reduced by 0.3 percentage points to 0.7%. The forecast for next year, compared with a forecast of the fourth quarter of last year was reduced by 0.1 percentage points. Experts' forecast also assumes that inflation in 2018 will be only 1.6%. This means that the ECB has for some time will not reach its target.

According to the presented today by the National Statistics Office (ONS), retail sales in the UK in December fell by 1% compared to November, but rose by 2.6% in annual terms. Expected deterioration in sales, but not so significant.

Disappointing indicators of sales in December, which accounts for the celebration of Christmas and the preparations for the New Year, have become further evidence that the UK economy faces serious challenges, while the construction sector is going through difficult times, and the manufacturing sector of the country is suffering from falling demand in world markets. This means that the dependence of the UK economy from consumer spending at the beginning of 2016 has increased.

Pound drops on weak data on retail to 1.4251 against the dollar and 0.7606 against the euro before.

Today, it is worth paying attention to the consumer price index and changes in the volume of retail sales in Canada, the index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector.

A source

Analysis Alpari


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