Something strange is going on between the dollar and oil - believes the chief economist at Societe Generale M.Markussen - on AMarkets materials.
If you look a little deeper into the history, the dynamics between oil and US currency correlation is almost always discernible. When the USD strengthened, raw sags. Conversely, oil growing - the dollar fell. Now, however, the picture stands out from the general historical trend - oil strengthened, not weakened the dollar, too, but still remains a possibility that the rate will rise. The consensus forecast for the oil price at the end of 2016 - about $ 50 per barrel. However, the dynamics of the dollar (if you focus on historical patterns) says that if the current behavior of the oil should cost USD by the end of 2016, about $ 30.
One explanation for the correlation of breaking the trend is that most of this correlation held on condition of massive imports of crude oil America. Now America has reduced imports. Therefore, the connection was broken. In 2008, America imported 12 million barrels a day. Now the figure is much lower than on the background of the development of shale technology - less than 5 million barrels per day. If we subtract Mexico and Canada, the sum of imports and even less - about 2.4 million barrels per day. Simply put, oil imports to the United States dropped by 60% since 2008. Conclusion - most likely, the price correlation between oil-dollar close to zero - said Markussen.