For many years, the feeling of a hand of the US, the Saudi kingdom felt like God's bosom. But at some point in the Anglo-Saxon West I decided to reformat the world, guided by the theory of "controlled chaos" and his ilk, and incomprehensible economic concepts. And the Saudis felt that "the roof has moved down."
The world is now experiencing a "revolutionary" moment: the government and its functions quickly transferred to multinationals - they become carriers of the primacy of force. Bilderberg as a world government - not the ghost of conspiracy. Western political and economic structure of the world enters into the new format. And in this format Saudi Arabia for some reason does not get. Perhaps these reasons already not close 2001 with speaking "9.11". Given the latest news.
CA was trying to influence the US to retake their positions. And provoking and uleschivaya - it did not work.Princes often traveled to Moscow, probing the soil and offering substantial assets for the support of their own interests, but it did not work out.
And after the completion of the Iranian nuclear deal Saudis feel cheated shamelessly. And defenseless. The United States did not consider their interests: Iran came out from under the sanctions. And a chance to become a major regional power vanished. In simple terms, the SA just "threw".
From this moment it begins a serious crisis in the minds sauditskoy elite and the intensification of the struggle for power.
In SA there was still a pair of aces, that she wanted to play, but none of them worked.
One of the trump cards CA - oil reserves, the volume of its production and leadership in OPEC. But just before the start of the Doha Saudis lose this trump card after the command to stop them, followed by the son of the Saudi king, concurrently Minister of Defense and Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers. It is not entirely clear why the decision was made. Clearly another - negotiations more prepared to succeed than to fail, ended in failure. With all the consequences for the Saudi kingdom: the unpredictable status of the country and the loss of leadership in OPEC. And OPEC now nothing.
Come to mind one assumption, partly due to the failure of the Doha - an investment fund of Saudi Arabia, under the control of which in the future may prove to be assets in excess of $ 2 trillion dollars! If we consider such an option, of course, the Saudis continue to be interested in the oil wars and, respectively, at low prices. But this option does not fully describe the whole situation with the refusal to negotiate. But at least it shows the foundation upon which the CA policy.
And further. It is possible that before the talks in Doha Saudis with someone (a bit versions) behind the scenes trying to solve their problems, such as Iran, changing freeze production at other preferences. It did not work - that left such an embarrassment. Perhaps, on the contrary, everything just happened, and therefore did not agree about anything.
Who profits dip in Doha?
To answer this question is useful to recall the principles of the formation of oil prices. In part, they are formed in the real oil sector, ie where CA is working, and partly in the "air exchange" sector, where only numbers are sold in the computer, ie, in the United States patrimony. Who would not say, stand by my opinion that the price of oil dropped on the agreement the two above-mentioned countries. Americans - for "tearing Russia to pieces," the Saudis - from a lack of alternatives, while maintaining sales market.
It remains whether America desire to "break" the Russian? Definitely. Although they have sacrificed to their slate this pie. But in SA there were serious problems in the economy, which could lead to social upheaval, even another "spring". But Saudi Arabia is playing for high stakes. Having neither the time nor the good cards. I do not know that she can win, but in the case of loss will disappear and the Saudi Dynasty kings and the kingdom itself.
As "unfrozen Doha" will affect Russia? I venture to suggest that the incident would be a prelude to a change of the guard. Nature abhors a vacuum. Not ready to talk about the construction of a new organization, but the fact that Russia will be able to squeeze out of the situation, the most useful for themselves, - convinced of this.
How the situation will affect the price? I think that a serious price drop will not. retest the lows do not expect.Price for a walk for a while in the range of $ 38-45 (at least where the price may fall under certain circumstances - $ 31), and then we'll see. In my view, the market has already taken a position to the north.And the consequences of what happened in Qatar counted.
With great pleasure to read an oil analyst Oleg Naumenko. Sam wanted to write a review following the meeting in Doha. "Goodbye, OPEC!" Gave impetus to my desire