BlackRock Inc., the largest equity fund in the world, warns investors prefer bonds that the players are not prepared to further increase rates - on AMarkets materials.
There is a 48% probability (Foundation survey) that the Fed did raise rates this year. January 1 this probability is estimated at 93%. As you can see, the probability fell against the background of sales in the stock market, as well as on the background of a devastating drop in oil prices. Now the oil market and the stock gradually aligned - at least segments slightly hint at this.
The Fund's experts believe that the Fed could easily increase the rate in the near future - inflation strengthened, among other things. The rate of 30-year Treasury bonds may fall on 1p.p. with the current values in the region of 2.60%, according to mainstream expectations. Now portfolios players too many bonds - the maximum amount, if you count from 2008.
According to the Bloomberg survey, the 10-year note will rise to 2.41% by the end of the year. But there are radically opposed views - for example, Guggenheim Fund forecasts of falling rates for 10-year notes up to 1% up to the end-of 2016. According to fund analysts, technical analysis assumes soon drop rate by 28 basis points!Analysts Fund were remarkably accurate in predicting the fall of oil prices to $ 25, when it fluctuated around the level of $ 60. The bottom line - no one knows exactly what will happen tomorrow, but it is not necessary to keep a maximum of US debt capital.