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Main » 2016 » February » 25 » Do not underestimate the intentions of the Fed
Do not underestimate the intentions of the Fed

BlackRock Inc., the largest equity fund in the world, warns investors prefer bonds that the players are not prepared to further increase rates - on AMarkets materials.




There is a 48% probability (Foundation survey) that the Fed did raise rates this year. January 1 this probability is estimated at 93%. As you can see, the probability fell against the background of sales in the stock market, as well as on the background of a devastating drop in oil prices. Now the oil market and the stock gradually aligned - at least segments slightly hint at this.

The Fund's experts believe that the Fed could easily increase the rate in the near future - inflation strengthened, among other things. The rate of 30-year Treasury bonds may fall on 1p.p. with the current values ​​in the region of 2.60%, according to mainstream expectations. Now portfolios players too many bonds - the maximum amount, if you count from 2008.

According to the Bloomberg survey, the 10-year note will rise to 2.41% by the end of the year. But there are radically opposed views - for example, Guggenheim Fund forecasts of falling rates for 10-year notes up to 1% up to the end-of 2016. According to fund analysts, technical analysis assumes soon drop rate by 28 basis points!Analysts Fund were remarkably accurate in predicting the fall of oil prices to $ 25, when it fluctuated around the level of $ 60. The bottom line - no one knows exactly what will happen tomorrow, but it is not necessary to keep a maximum of US debt capital.


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