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Main » 2016 » August » 23 » Do not rely on the dollar
Do not rely on the dollar



Investors continue to wonder when the next rate hike. Opinions were divided.The dollar is moving in a tight binding to the comments coming from the US Federal Reserve - Materials AMarkets.




Traders who trade in derivatives, according to the quotations derivatives laid only one episode of increasing rates over the next 3 years. The dollar index Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (assesses the dynamics of USD against a basket of key currencies) fell by 0.9% last week. The decline amounted to 5.3% since the beginning of the year. However, according to Bloomberg consensus forecast, the dollar strengthened to the end of the year to $ 1.09 against the euro and 105 against the yen.


In March, the Fed itself has reduced the number of episodes of the expected increase rate to 2 against 4. Six officials representing the regulator in June expected only one rate increase in 2016. In March, the number of pending single episode rate increase was smaller - only one person. The probability of increasing the rate rose to 51% by year's end - a survey conducted by Bloomberg last week. The probability that the rate will be increased after the next meeting of the regulator (20-21 September) stands at 22%. Analysts say the Fed could put significant constraints to further appreciation of the dollar. However, the dollar will fall and not much in the near future. To drop the soil is not material.


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