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Main » 2016 » April » 4 » Dangerous signals in the stock market
Dangerous signals in the stock market

There were times when investors have focused on the financial statements.Now the focus instead of sales figures, or operating margin - verbal or linguistic turns Yellen Draghi - on AMarkets materials.




Investors "guessing" in words the leaders of the major central banks and adopt on the basis of the "analysis" of their investment decisions.

Nevertheless, the importance of fundamental factors has not been canceled, and already matured danger signals in the stock market.

1. bullish cycle in the stock market for more than 7 years, only one rally in the history of the US stock market continued for longer - from December 1987 to March 2000. This was followed by a 2.5-bear annual drawdown, prices have fallen off by 50%.

2. P / E index at the level of 24 Index P / E (CAPE ratio) by Robert Shiller of the danger signals on the background of the historical average of 16.

3. Indicator PEG Ratio in the absolute maximum price per share ratio, PEG and earnings growth (price-earnings-to-growth) for the index of wide market S & P 500 is now at a level of 1.7 - is a historical record.

4. Falling prices for bonds prices "junk bonds" began to fall 18 months ago. Historical examples show that the S & P500 and should start to fall very soon.

5. The over-valued housing market problem is that home prices have increased, and incomes of the population - no. In 2007, the average household income in the US was at $ 57,936 in 2014, fell to $ 53657. In 2007, the average price on the American home fluctuated around $ 247900, and in January of this year the average price was $ 278,800.





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